Grain and hog markets end mostly lower on Friday, with cattle futures higher.
Cattle Markets Rally Ahead of Reports
Cattle futures rallied Friday ahead of the USDA’s Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says both live and feeder cattle futures had a nice recovery and got within striking distance of the all-time highs set earlier in the week.
Before the futures closed, there were reports of light cash trade in the North at steady to higher money.
The North trade ranged from $375 to $382 dressed, but the volume was mostly $380, up $1 from last week’s weighted average. Live sales ranged from $240 to $242.
After the markets closed some very light business was reported in the South on the Mandatory Report at $226 to $237.50 but the volume was mostly $230 to $232, steady to $2 higher than last week’s weighted averages.
Cattle on Feed Friendly
USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report was bullish with the number of cattle on feed at 98%, down over 1% from the average trade guess. Placements were at 92%, which was 6% below expectations and markets at 96% were in line with estimates.
This report also shows the breakout of heifers versus steers being placed and was at 94.6% on heifers, which indicates very minimal heifer retention he says.
Varilek is calling the report bullish.
Cattle Inventory Shows Slight Herd Rebuilding Compared to 2023
The Cattle Inventory Report showed All Cattle and Calves at 99% compared to July 1, 2023. All cows and heifers was at 99%, beef cows at 99%, Heifers at 98%, Beef Replacement Heifers at 97%.
Average trade guesses were mostly 98% coming into the report but since this was compared to two years ago Varilek says its hard to really make a fair comparison.
Looking at the July 1, 2025 numbers verses the Jan. 1, 2025 numbers they were up slightly but he says not enough to indicate more than mild expansion and the report still confirmed the historically low herd inventory.
So, Varilek thinks the markets will refocus their attention on the cash market for direction.
Lean Hogs Fall
Lean hog futures were mostly lower except the August contract, a mirror opposite of Thursday’s close.
The higher Lean Hog Index and higher cutouts failed to pull up the futures and Varilek says many contracts also ran into chart resistance.
Grains Discount Exports as Funds Sell
Grains were lower for the week with December corn down 8 3/4 cents, November soybeans fell 14 3/4, September hard red winter wheat dropped 2 1/2, September soft red winter lost 8 cents and September hard red spring wheat fell 9 cents.
Grains were also mostly lower on Friday with old crop corn falling below $4 and old crop soybeans below $10, despite some positive export news.
More flash sales were reported by USDA with 4.1 million bushels of new crop corn sold to Mexico, 5.5 million bushels to South Korea and 5.24 million bushels of new crop soybeans sold to Mexico.
Varilek says the funds returned as sellers this week as technically and fundamentally they had very little reason to buy any of the grain markets.
“The bulls tried to make the argument that the corn market needed to rally on the heat, but it’s the end of July and so its kind of late for that. Weather has been nearly ideal this growing season and so the funds are short, especially in corn, and they have no reason to buy,” he explains.
Trade frameworks released this week had very little substance and instead indicated it may be a while before producers see additional purchases so that failed to attract any buying either.
Without some major supply or demand shock Varilek thinks corn and soybeans are poised to retest last week’s lows before harvest.
