Grains are all lower with soybeans making new lows on USDA report hangover. Cattle are up.
Randy Martinson, with Martinson Ag, says soybeans are pricing in the 560 million bushel carryover from the WASDE, but are also seeing pressure from strong crop ratings and forecasted rain.
Crop conditions on soybeans came in at 68% good to excellent nationally, steady with last week.
That weakness is spilling over and dragging down corn, so that market has been unable to build on the bullish key reversal from Monday in reaction to lower ending stocks by 25 million bushels in the report.
Farm Service Agency data released after the report was also constructive with 3.843 million acres of prevent plant, which was up from last year’s 3.6 million. Corn accounted for 2.67 million acres of that, soybeans, 775,000 and wheat 389,000.
Martinson says, “I think USDA accounted for about a third of that in the August report and so they will need to keep revising the acreage figures down in future data.”
Row crops also faded flash export sales this morning with China buying 4.85 million bushels of new crop soybeans and Mexico coming in for 5.4 million of new crop corn.
Wheat futures are also lower following corn and soybeans after what was a constructive report.
Spring wheat production saw a big decrease of 34 million bushels, when the trade was expecting an increase and some of it came from USDA lowering acreage by 555,000.
Cattle trade 2-sided early and then rallied, but every uptick in the market seems to create an opportunity for funds to liquidate and Martinson says the futures may retest the December lows.
