Grains end lower Friday, with cattle mixed and hogs higher.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says after a non-eventful WASDE, grains saw some profit taking heading into the weekend with row crops seeing harvest pressure.
USDA trimmed soybean yield by .1 bushels per acre to 53.1 bushels per acre and raised corn yield .2 bushels to 183.8 bushels, but both were records.
Sloup says he was surprised the trade thought the yield was lower going into the report because that doesn’t align with what he is hearing for harvest reports out in the country.
The corn and soybean markets were also focused on South American weather, with rain chances in Brazil remaining in the extended forecast.
He says a shift in election polls giving Trump a slight edge may have also played into China tariff talk which would be negative.
Sloup says predicting the next move by the managed money funds is also a big factor in the grain markets.
“That’s the million dollar question. Funds have exited much of their short positon and I think that may be negative because they don’t have shorts to cover if rains start in South America,” he says.
Technically, he says if November soybeans take out $10 support they could retest the contract low at $9.55 and December corn may also retest the contract low if it takes out the $4 level.
Wheat has been adding weather and war premium but saw some profit taking Friday after running into chart resistance.
However, Sloup is optimistic about the wheat market’s ability to continue to rally.
Live cattle futures hit chart resistance and ended lower, despite steady to $1 higher cash trade.
Lean hogs made new highs for the move in all but the October as funds continue to buy.
