Grain and livestock futures ended mostly lower Thursday, except soybean meal.
Soybeans Steady Awaiting China Summit
November soybeans were down just 3/4 cent closing at $13.19 3/4.
The market saw two sided trade, stuck between the lower bean oil market and new contract highs in meal.
Breaks in the market continue to be bought with strong demand and as funds don’t want to be short going into the U.S. China Summit next week.
Craig Turner with StoneX says, “There’s a lot of optimism about the U.S. and China. You take a look at how many soybeans China’s buying.
You can get up to 25 million tons pretty fast. And that’s just by the end of the calendar year, 2026. It doesn’t count anything for the rest of the marketing year, running up to August of next year.”
Meal Market Into Contract Highs, Bean Oil Strong
The soybean meal market is also hitting new contract highs and getting to levels not seen in 2 1/2 years, which is supporting soybeans on the breaks.
Turner says there’s also perceived value in soybean oil at these levels. “You get into the 60s, you know 67 68 price per pound and you’re starting to see the end users pop up and buy soybean oil too. Even though crush is so strong. We’ve had 17 months in a row of records and yet here we are sitting at only a 1.2 billion on the soybean oil stocks,” he says.
Soybean meal exports hit a new record in the 2025/26 marketing year and have been strong with increased buying now coming from the European Union according to Turner.
“Argentina is busy exporting corn. The United States is busy exporting meal. There’s very high prices for livestock. And also remember, the administration here is very keen on getting beef prices lower. And if we can’t do it here in the United States, there is this sentiment around the world where you can start importing, the United States would import beef to get prices down. I think there’s a lot of things going on here,” he adds.
There are also tightening supplies of corn and feed wheat which is adding fuel to the fire.
Soybeans Hitting Resistance at Contract Highs
The soybeans have tested and are consolidating under last Friday’s contract highs in the soybeans. Will the futures break above that level before the China Summit?
Turner is doubtful, “I think that’s difficult, right? I mean, the reason why a lot of these support resistances areas happen is you need the next catalyst usually to break on through. Now if we get something very positive in that meeting, positive enough where ending stocks projections would come down then you really think it would break out to the upside.”
However, with without continued dryness in central and northern Brazil or planting delays in Southern Brazil and Argentina or some kind of big domestic demand shock, Turner thinks it will be hard to break to new highs.
The other reason is the funds are already record long.
China Premium
Conversely if the market is disappointed with the outcome of the meeting, how much premium could be extracted?
Turner says, “I think the first support is around $12.80 and then there’s massive, massive support in like the $12.20, $12.30 area. But with the projections of the ending stocks, it is difficult to see it to break it much below $13 at the moment.”
Corn Tests Support, Still Sideways
The corn market ended lower with December down 3 3/4 cents at $5.30 1/2. The market tested the 20-day moving average support but bounced off that level.
Corn is still in a sideways consolidation pattern waiting for new news says Turner.
“The way the markets work, when you get to under 10% stocks to usage, when the funds start to see that develop, they pile in. And they tend to pile in record long,” he says.
The second move higher is the cash market taking the futures higher because ethanol, export or feed demand doesn’t slow down and so prices have to go higher.
“So, what the funds will do is they’re just sitting and waiting for the cash mark to come higher. We are seeing harvest pressure and when we get to that $5.25 area we are seeing value and end users and traders coming in by corn,” he states.
And that is healthy according to Turner because the funds can only take the market so far up or so far down.
“But to go the next leg it’s got to be price rationing in the cash market and that’s what everyone’s going to be waiting around for,” he adds.
Harvest Delays and Disappointing Corn Yields
The market is digesting reports of disappointing yield and there are harvest delays with recent heavy rains in some areas.
Turner is hearing reports of disappointing corn yields, “It’s not terribly disappointing, but definitely a little bit lower than farmers are hoping in Illinois, Indiana, and in Missouri. So across that belt right there. So if the USDA does take the yields down to, let’s say, 176 or something like that, that would be certainly another way to run higher. But we’d have to wait, most likely, until the WASDE or USDA to confirm that.”
He points out that if the commercials are seeing that they will be buying in the cash market and it would show up in the basis and spreads.
Inflationary Buying
However, with energy prices continuing to run high and inflationary concerns growing will that be enough of a catalyst to rally the grain market especially with funds already record long soybeans and meal and near to record long in corn.”
“There’s structural inflation and there’s transitory inflation and transitory inflation can last a long time, especially if energy prices are elevated and we’re practically double in some of these markets. than they were a year ago. That may be transitory, but it doesn’t really matter. The Fed has to respect it. So they’re going to raise interest rates here.”
There are also global macro fund managers with massive amounts of money that work in the bond and stock market.
He says, “If the fund managers are even taking a small percentage and allocating it to the softs and to the ag and livestock market, that can be very supportive over the next three to six months. Because let’s remember, the Fed, they used to forecast what they were going to do and tip their cards, and they’re not doing that anymore. So I can definitely see the funds adding a little length here to cover their bases in the commodity markets.” he says.
Wheat Down Despite Black Sea Infrastructure Damage
The wheat market was also lower on profit taking and long liquidation despite Russia damaging a Ukraine bridge critical for grain exports.
Turner says the market is also getting tired of the Black Sea rhetoric.
“The market is exhausted. If you look at the charts, the momentum indicators to take us higher again you’ve got to see the cash market take us higher.”
So far there hasn’t been any panic buying yet by buyers and millers. “Now if this continues and Russia and Ukraine are exporting at about half their pace through September to November that’s another story but at the moment you’re seeing some profit taking,” he says.
Plus, spring wheat harvest is underway in the Northern hemisphere in September and October and 80% of the world’s exportable wheat and the major exporters are in the Northern hemisphere,” he explains.
That hedge pressure could last for the next three to four weeks.
Cattle Down a Third Day
Cattle futures were lower again and have been consolidating for the last three days after hitting 50% retracement levels.
Turner says much of this is also profit-taking heading into the Cattle on Feed Report.
Plus the funds have been long in the cattle market for a very long time and so there is natural buying exhaustion.
He points out that with the administration trying to get beef prices down they are finding ways to bring more imports into the U.S.
Cash so far has been steady at $222 to $223 and $350 dressed. However, all it will take is for a higher print for the market to rally says Turner.
