Jerry Gulke, owner of Gulke Group and a Top Producer columnist, recently joined the Top Producer podcast to share three trends he’s seeing in corn, soybean and wheat prices.
1. Volatile Corn Market
Overall, the price of corn has been on the downhill slide for the past two years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, it’s important to keep historical prices in mind.
“Four or five years ago, we were hoping for $4 corn. Now, it’s a disaster if it goes that low,” he says. “We’ve had some good times, and now we’re paying the piper.”
Prices have rallied a bit since the end of February, but they are still frequently changing.
“We’re doing much better than last year in exports - so far, so good,” Gulke says. “Now it’s a day-to-day thing. I think we’re going to be in a marketplace where it’s volatile.”
2. Beans Aren’t Adding Up
As the South American soybean harvest comes to a close, the market isn’t changing the way Gulke anticipated.
“Something is kind of screwy,” he says. “Argentina should be coming on the market with a bigger export for meal, yet, we’re still exporting meal.”
He says the soybean market is behaving like there are too many beans in the U.S., and the South American crop is better than what some people think.
“We’re seeing some differences of opinions and the market is acting nervous,” Gulke says.
3. Wheat Is Interesting
Gulke explains that because the wheat market is small in comparison to what’s produced in Europe, it is heavily influenced by what the crops in those countries look like. And right now, production in Ukraine and Russia looks smaller than it did a few months ago.
“We’re a small fish in a big pond. When they have a small problem, it greatly affects our demand on a percentage basis for wheat here,” he says. “Russia doesn’t have a good crop every year. They do falter and they can falter by a lot.”
He cautions the wheat market is one farmers need to keep an eye on.
“Our indications were that a few weeks ago was the top in wheat. Right now, we’re not competitive with wheat price-wise - but we’re still hanging in there,” he says. “If we can get through harvest without too much of a break, then we may have put in a bottom quite some time ago.”
Catch up on all episodes of the Top Producer Podcast.
