Corn and soybeans open slightly higher then fade strong weekly exports and additional flash sales as wheat drags down the complex.
Craig Turner of StoneX says exports were strong this morning at 87.6 million bushels for corn, 62.6 million for soybeans and 18.5 million for wheat.
Flash sales were also announced and included 4.9 million bushels of corn to unknown destinations, 10.8 million bushels of soybeans to unknown and 21,000 metric tons of soybean oil to Mexico....all for 2024-25.
Turner says end users have $4 corn, $10 soybeans and $5.50 wheat as a value and have been buying at these prices, which has supported the markets.
“But we also have a lot of corn and soybeans coming to the market here at harvest. So if you’re on the buy side here, and you’re looking at you know where prices are and what are the odds of a we’re going lower? Versus what are the potential odds of us going higher and where the risk reward is?”
He says if you add in 20% inflation the grains are a real bargain and could be carving out new trading ranges.
“I think we are seeing a new range for corn from $4.00 to $5.25, soybeans from $10 to $13 and wheat from $5.50 to $7 for SRW wheat,” he explains.
However, Turner thinks some of the export buying is also tied to fear of increased tariffs or a trade war.
Meanwhile, China threw more stimulus at the economy, an indication to him that it is not working and could be a demand red flag.
Wheat sees pressure removing weather premium with rains in Russia’s Southern Region on Thursday.
Rains are also forecasted for portions Southern Plains wheat areas, although some models are backing off the totals coming into Friday.
However, he thinks wheat is also seeing technical selling as it hit chart resistance again.
So will the funds go back short in the grains?
Turner thinks it is possible the managed money traders will re-establish some of their short position and may have already.
