USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report is expected to be a major market mover.
The trade is expecting a large increase in corn acreage compared to last year with an average guess of 94.361 million acres, up 3.8 million from last year.
The trade estimates for soybeans are pegged at 83.762 million, down 2.2 million and wheat at 46.47 million acres, would be down nearly 500,000.
The acreage shift from soybeans and wheat into corn are a result of better profit potential for corn but where will the majority of those acreage shifts come from?
The Delta and Northwestern Corn Belt are the most likely geographies that could contribute to the shift.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he expects more corn in the Dakotas and Minnesota.
“It was a lot better growing season last year. I mean, you guys were able to get the corn off in a very timely manner, very dry. They remember last year and that’s what they’re going to hope for this year so that’s going to help increase the acres and you know a little bit better price a little better guarantees as far as crop insurance is concerned is going to pull the acres there too,” he explains.
However, he thinks soybean acres, at least in North Dakota, could be fairly stable.
“But I wouldn’t expect a big drop in soybeans though. We’ve got the two crush plants that are going to kind of command, you know, still need, you know, product to be brought in. And so I think we’ll still see a good base of soybeans being raised here.”
In fact, Martinson thinks the crop that will lose out will be spring wheat and he expects a nearly 500,000 acre cut.
“Price is part of it. And then also, you know, wheat, because of last year’s, you know, quality issues, then that’s going to pull some of the acres away. Some of the specialty crops will see some, you know, variances between them as well,” he says.
Tariff fears are also causing a few acreage changes.
Martinson says, “I think we could see a little increase in oats because of tariffs, even with Canada. Barley acres will ‘cause they’re just like wheat. A lot of guys have to hold it to before they can deliver it. So I look for barley acres to be down and maybe a few more sunflower acres with better prices.”
With more corn in fringe areas Martinson says that could limit corn yields but a lot will still depend on the weather.


