The grain markets have a tendency to shift around Thanksgiving. That could be in the cards this year, says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.
March corn prices were down 7.75¢, for the week ending Nov. 19. May corn prices were down 7.5¢. March wheat prices were up 5.75¢. Minneapolis wheat was down 32¢
January soybean prices were up 19.25¢, as were March soybean prices. The rest of the soybean complex included meal up $8 and oil down.
“There is not much harvest left, and the doors are probably closed on the bins,” Gulke says. “Farmers have a lot of money from the past two administrations and they’re probably not in need of getting a bigger tax problem. So, we’re probably not going to see much of a glut of grain coming to market until after the first of the year, at least that’s the perception by the trade.”
As of Nov. 14, USDA reports 91% of the U.S. corn crop and 92% of the U.S. soybean crop has been harvested.
“We have the fundamentals, at least on the supply side, pretty much defined,” Gulke says. “Now the questions are around demand. Will China refresh their buying and get back on track to catch up as they are currently behind.”
At least for now, the markets are digesting positive news.
“We’ve seen corn and bean prices go down since the first part of May,” Gulke says. “We’ve now slowed that process down, the momentum has turned, we’re breaking some trendlines and we’re posting some new high closes.”
In particular, he says, 2022 December corn has broken out and sustained its upward move.
“Looking forward the focus will be on South American production and China,” Gulke says. “There was a meeting with China and the United States this week, and not much came out of it. In fact, agriculture wasn’t mentioned hardly at all. But still, we didn’t collapse even further than what we had earlier in the week.”
The Soybean Complex
Soybeans have been an interesting market to watch, Gulke says. Renewable diesel interest is at play with soy oil and other news impacting soy meal.
“We watch markets technically on a daily and weekly basis and we had weekly sell signals in the soybean oil a few weeks ago, and then a little bit later we had weekly buy signals in the meal,” he says. “Lo and behold, here comes the news saying that China is no longer going to sell lysine, which is a feed additive. Some of our clients are saying that it’s going to cause a significant increase in the demand for soybean meal. So, we have had some positive news and price response in that market for a change.”
Check the latest market prices in AgWeb’s Commodity Markets Center.
Jerry Gulke farms in Illinois and North Dakota. He is president of Gulke Group. Disclaimer: There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures or options, and each investor and trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. There is no guarantee the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
