Ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report at the end of March many private firms are releasing farmer surveys and estimates on what farmers are mostly likely to plant in the spring of 2024.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag in Fargo, North Dakota, says he expects combined acreage to be lower this year for all the principal crops with the dramatic drop in grain prices compared to a year ago. That generally means fringe acres in the Northern Plains and Northwest corn belt will back off.
He says when looking at the price ratio between corn and soybeans, the latter is the clear winner. It’s not just a function of better prices, but also lower input costs.
In North Dakota and Minnesota he says specialty crops like dry edible beans are also fetching good premiums and may pick up a few acres.
However, the one crop that will likely lose out is wheat. He says, “Wheat is the crop most producers tell me they are cutting back on just due to the unfavorable price,”
The one caveat is there has been very little snow in much of the northern corn belt and so farmers in those areas will be getting into the field early to plant. Martinson says, “There was already some fertilizer applied in southeast North Dakota on those warm days.” An early spring can at times result in a few more spring wheat and corn acres.
USDA projected in the Ag Outlook Forum in February a shift in acres, with nearly 4 million acres more soybeans and 3.6 million acres less corn.
