Pre-Report Analysis of the June 30 USDA Reports
On Wednesday, June 30 at 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release its annual Acreage report and a quarterly Grain Stocks report. These reports are historically market movers. Read our pre-report coverage and analysis below.
AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Davis Michaelsen preview today's Acreage and Grain reports:
First Thing Today Audio | June 30, 2021
On average, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect corn plantings to rise notably from March intentions with soybean plantings also climbing.
Analysts expect U.S. plantings of #corn + #soybeans to rise a record 4 million acres from the March survey. That tops 2009's record of 3.5 million acres. pic.twitter.com/MHOcoyJjDU — Karen Braun (@kannbwx) June 29, 2021
Analysts see June 1 #corn stocks at a 7-year low for the date and #soybeans and #wheat at 6-year lows.
The estimates would imply Q3 corn use at a 3-year high but nearly 1% off 2018's high. Q3 soybean use would be a 4-year low and Q4 wheat use a 2-year high. pic.twitter.com/y6z5LQTy22 — Karen Braun (@kannbwx) June 29, 2021
Acreage Report Preview: Farmers Weigh In On How Planting Plans Changed From March to June
As USDA prepares to post its June 30 planted acreage report, the trade is watching to see just what those numbers will be. “There's almost always a big surprise in these reports,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.
Jerry Gulke: Are the Grain Markets Entering the Fear Stage?
On Wednesday, June 30, USDA will release its annual Acreage report and a quarterly Grain Stocks report. Based on the current debate, Jerry Gulke says it’s not so much of a question on if USDA increases its acreage estimate but by how much.
Here's Why Parched Portions of the Corn Belt Matter in the Acreage Debate
The market’s attention is on USDA’s June acreage report set for Wednesday, June 30. “Some of the expectations are for five or 6 million acres more corn,” says Mark Gold of StoneX Group. “I personally don't see that. I think it's going to be somewhere around two to 3 million more acres of corn, 1 million and a half more acres of beans.”
Blog Commentary
Joe Vaclavik: Report Day!
Traders generally expect larger corn and soybean acres versus March Intentions.
Dan Hueber: Reports Cloud Out Everything Else
The outlook for the week ahead calls for basically the same pattern, but for the next few days at least, weather issues will be clouded out by prepping for the USDA reports to be released on Wednesday.
Jon Scheve: Can Beans Rally Back Above $15 Or Are We Headed For $10?
Everyone is waiting for Wednesday’s USDA report, arguably the biggest of the year, that will provide estimated total planted acres and quarterly stock numbers. Once the market better knows planted acres and remaining old crop supply, balance sheet estimates become clearer. I am estimating 93.1 million planted corn acres, a 2.5 million acre increase from March, and 89.1 million bean acres, up 1 million from March.
Joe Vaclavik: Supreme Court Rules Against Biofuels, Heavy Rains
This report has the potential to result in significant market volatility. There is a wide range of guesses for both acreage and stocks.
