Grain and livestock futures are mixed early Wednesday.
Trade News Supports Soybeans
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans are seeing a slight bounce early in the session on trade news.
A deal was announced overnight with Japan, which is a top five buyer of corn, soybeans and wheat from the U.S. and the framework for a Philippines deal was also announced which is a large soybean meal customer. However, the more supportive trade development is the meeting next week in Stockholm between U.S. and Chinese officials.
Corn Struggles With Big Yields
Corn was higher overnight and on the opening Wednesday also working in the trade news.
However, corn is struggling with lower wheat futures, the moderating weather and record yield prospects.
Doherty says, “And that range is probably anywhere from the upper 170s to maybe the mid 180s. And I think you’ve got
to lean that needle toward that at least 182, 183, I think that’s a realistic number. We know that there’s been pollination issues in the news as of late it seems though from our best view that’s probably more isolated and not something that’s going to have significant longer -term impact on the bigger yield number.”
He says the weather forecast also has more moderate temperatures on the way accompanied by rains leaving he market with the “rain makes grain” mentality.
Doherty says, “When you have continuous rain on the radar and moderate temperatures in the extended forecast, it just doesn’t look to me like we’ve got a weather event that’s ready to push the market. That can still change. It’s only July 23rd, but the weather window for corn is closing kind of quickly.”
Grain Markets Still Rangebound
Doherty says both corn and soybeans bounced off lows last week and rallied into overhead resistance at chart gap areas last Friday and failed.
So, now both markets are still trading within ranges.
Cattle Push Into Contract Highs
Both live and feeder cattle futures are back making new contract highs on Wednesday.
Doherty says the futures discount to the cash trade continues to attract fund buying on nearly every break.
However, news of a deal with Japan which is a top beef customer may also be giving the market some additional push.
Milk Futures Into Contract Lows
Class 3 milk futures are pushing into contract lows on the heels of a bearish milk production report from USDA.
Milk production in the 24 major States during June totaled 18.5 billion pounds, up 3.4% from June 2024. May
revised production, at 19.3 billion pounds, was up 2.4% from May 2024. The May revision represented an increase
of 136 million pounds or 0.7% from last month’s preliminary production estimate.
Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,045 pounds for June, 33 pounds above June 2024. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.03 million head, 151,000 head more than June 2024, and 3,000 head more than May 2025.
April-June Milk Production was also up 2.4%.
Doherty says this was a shock to him and the market and as a result the market is pushed into contract lows and could see more downside pressure working in the larger production.
“Take a look at production per cow up 33 pounds in the last month versus a year ago, that’s 1 .64%. That’s a lot of increased production cows, June cows up 151,000. It goes back to what we talked about before. One of my concerns was that the high beef prices are going to keep and cheap corn prices are going to keep the dairy producer pushing into the production side for the beef check and try to out -produce low prices or mediocre prices. That’s the nature of dairy historically is to try and out produce out of a poor pricing scenario. So unfortunately, that doesn’t help price.
