Soybeans are lower early Tuesday, with corn and wheat slightly higher. Cattle are lower, hogs are trading two-sided.
Soybeans Fade Big China Buys
Soybeans are mostly lower early in the session Tuesday after USDA’s confirmation of rumored China soybean purchases. Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says on Monday trade talk was that China had bought six to nine cargoes of U.S. soybeans. Tuesday Bloomberg reported 20 cargoes and Reuters reported 14 cargoes.
USDA’s flash sales report confirmed private exporters had reported 792,000 MT or 29.1 million bu. of soybeans to China for the 2025-26 marketing year. However, Martinson says that news is already priced into the market after the big rally to 17-month highs in soybeans. So, the market is seeing a traditional “buy to rumor sell the fact” reaction. He says additional sales will be needed to push soybeans through the next area of chart resistance.
President Trump on Monday reaffirmed the 12 MMT of Chinese purchases would take place but is now sounding like the time frame for the sales or at least the shipments could be pushed back until spring. Martinson says if not, China would need to buy nearly every day to meet the commitment.
Record NOPA Crush
Martinson says the other bullish demand news was Monday’s NOPA crush report, which was released at 11 AM. For Oct, the NOPA Crush members (which account for about 95% of the US crush plants) crushed 227.65 MB of soybeans, crushing the previous record and far exceeding expectation of 209.52 MB.
Soybeans Into Chart Resistance
Funds have clearly been buying in the soybean market although the amount has not been confirmed says Martinson due to the absence of the Commitment of Traders report. He says January soybeans got above $11.35 chart resistance and are now eyeing the $11.65 area as the next target. A break above that level projects to a test of $11.95.
Corn Trying to Rally Alone
Corn is slightly higher Tuesday trying to rally without the help of the soybean market. Martinson says corn’s performance on Monday was a bit disappointing, especially after the release of the export inspections estimate. Last week’s corn shipments were reported at 2.05 MMT, (81million bu.) the highest level since 2021 and the 6th largest on record. To date, corn shipments are 73% ahead of last year and at a record pace.
Martinson says the corn market has been technically range bound Dec corn is back at its strong resistance line of $4.35, and a break above this level could open corn up to test $4.65. Despite the strong demand from ethanol production and exports, corn is fighting an uphill battle as the last of this record corn crop comes to market. USDA reported late on Monday U.S. harvest was at 91%, which is behind the 5-year average of 94%, as farmers are having a difficult time finding a home for the last bushels. Some elevators have stopped taking corn either on a limited basis or all together because their capacity is maxed out.
Wheat Tries to Extend Gains After Chart Breakout
Winter wheat had a chart breakout Monday, putting in a strong performance due to fund short covering and spill over buying from the higher soybean complex. However, wheat is starting to get support from planting concerns. Martinson says planting has not gone well in a few regions due to late season rains delaying soybean harvest. This has prevented producers from harvesting soybeans and plant the winter wheat. Early estimates are expecting SRW wheat acreage and HRW wheat acreage to possibly be down 10 to 12% year over year. But as seen in the Nov Crop Production report, the rest of the world seems to be making up for the U.S. decline he says.
USDA’s first crop rating on winter wheat also put the good to excellent rating on winter wheat at 45%, which is below the average trade guess of 52%. Martinson says that is also supportive but he thinks that was already anticipated on Monday which was part of the strength in the market.
Cattle Consolidate
Cattle futures are consolidating after a strong day on Monday. The market is still looking for a bottom but Martinson says both live and feeder cattle futures have held last week’s lows which are also long term support areas. For February live cattle $215 was a critical support area for January feeder cattle $310. Brazil’s tariffs were lowered by the Trump administration, but only 10%, still leaving a 66.4% tariff in place which is prohibitive.
Hogs See Two-Sided Trade
Lean hog futures saw short covering early on Tuesday but have traded two-sided. The market is still looking for a low after massive fund liquidation the last few weeks. However, it is waiting for the cash trade to stabilize as the Lean Hog Index was down another $.94 coming into Tuesday’s session. The market is also seeing influence from the cattle market.
