Grains opened higher but quickly turned mixed, with livestock higher.
Soybeans Retreat Despite Flash Sales
The soybean market started off slightly higher on Thursday morning after bouncing off of key support on Wednesday and ending higher. However, John Zanker with Farmers Keeper Financial says soybeans could not hold early gains despite more export business.
USDA announced private exporters had reported sales of 9.7 million bu. or 264,000 MT of soybeans sold to China, 8.3 million bu. or 226,000 MT to unknown destinations and 186,000 MT or 7.3 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations. All for the 2025-26 marketing year. This follows trade talk on Wednesday that China had bought 11 to 13 cargoes of U.S. soybeans and market sources indicate Sinograin has been booking several vargoes a day this week.
How Much Has China Bought?
Zanker says StoneX is estimating that China may have purchased 6 MMT of soybeans already from the U.S. and that may not include some of the unknown destination sales. However, he says even if China buys all 12 MMT it won’t be enough because U.S. export inspections are running 45% below a year ago.
Soybeans Eye Chart Gap
Soybeans took out key support on Thursday morning and Zanker thinks the soybean market will continue to see fund liquidation and speculative selling as the charts now point to the chart gap area on the January contract around the $10.63 area from Oct. 24. So, that means the futures may have to fall another 10 to 15 cents. U.S. soybeans are also not competitive in the world market and so the futures may be searching for a price that stimulates more demand.
Corn Holding With Strong Demand
The corn market is back higher on Thursday and above the 200-day moving average on the March contract in tandem with wheat. The market also got a boost from a flash sale of 7.3 million bu. or 186,000 MT of corn sold to unknown destinations on Thursday morning. Zanker thinks the strong demand is holding the market together and offsetting the record crop size. Exports have been on a record pace as confirmed by USDA’s record 3.2 billion bu. export projection in the December WASDE and he thinks that is achievable.
Corn Sideways
However, even if USDA comes down on yield in the January report he says it will be offset by lower feed and residual and so he doesn’t see corn moving out of its sideways trading range. Additionally, he says every rally towards $4.50 is going to be sold by farmers. “Its widely known that farmers are undersold on new crop corn and so these rallies will be met by selling especially after the first of the year,” he says.
Wheat Tries to Bounce With the Weight of Global Supplies
The wheat market is trying to recover early Thursday with a slightly weaker dollar index and with the held of the corn market. However, any sustained rallies will be difficult according to Zanker due to the big global production and ending stocks.
Acreage Shifts?
Currently the market is anticipating less corn and more soybean acreage for the 2026 planting season. Zanker thinks about 2 to 3 million acres more soybeans may be planted and shifted from corn. So that will also be working against the soybean market, in addition to a large crop out of South America.
