Soybeans end higher Wednesday with corn and wheat lower. Livestock rally.
Soybeans See Gains Wednesday
Soybeans rallied on Wednesday with help from short covering, a sharp rally in bean oil and the market was also adding some weather premium. Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says hot, dry weather is expected in much of Argentina and Southern Brazil in the next 10 days and it is hitting at the critical pod filling stage for some of the soybean crop.
Trade News Supportive for Soybeans?
Soybeans may have seen a little push from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s comments that talks were possible with China before President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi in April. He also suggested that President Trump is encouraging more soybean purchases despite the fact China has reached the 12 MMT of export business it agreed to in late October. McBride is suspect that China is done buying for now and will switch over to cheaper Brazilian soybeans, unless they sense there is a bigger weather problem. He thinks China will get back into a more normal buying pattern.
Soybeans Can’t Close Above Moving Averages
Despite the higher day, March soybeans seem unable to close above key 10 and 20 day moving averages. For March the 20-day is at $10.58 1/4. McBride says the market will need to see a decisive close above this mark to break out of this sideways trading range.
President Trump Backs Down on EU Tariffs
After the close, President Trump announced he was canceling his threat to impose 10% tariffs on eight EU countries if Denmark refused to sell Greenland. Instead, Trump posted via social media that he and NATO’s Rutte agreed to ‘framework of a future deal’ on the Arctic. McBride says this should be positive for especially soybeans since the EU had been a strong buyer of U.S. product when China had backed away from the market. The stock market rallied after the announcement, regaining most of what was lost on Tuesday.
Corn Fails at Resistance...Again
Corn futures started higher on Wednesday, following soybeans, but saw fund and technical selling as it failed at chart resistance again at $4.25 on the March contract. This also comes despite more flash export sales announcements with Columbia buying 5.9 million bu. and 7.7 million bu. being bought by unknown destinations. McBride says despite strong demand corn looks range bound through at least March as there are unlikely to be any real catalysts to rally the market.
Wheat Also Sees Technical Selling
Winter wheat futures also saw a higher overnight session and open but failed at chart resistance and that brought technical selling back into the market. McBride says wheat is struggling with big global supplies and is ignoring the bitterly cold weather forecasts for the Black Sea and U.S. Plains. “Wheat has nine lives and the funds are short in the market and like being short wheat,” he says.
Cattle Continue Recovery
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher again still recovering from last Friday’s huge selloff triggered by New World Screwworm fears and with help from the stabilization of the financial markets. However, the futures are still trading under last week’s highs and may stay within that range until either the cash trade develops or until after the USDA Cattle of Feed Report release. Early trade guesses show sharply lower placements which should be a good reminder of the tight inventory. If the market gets confirmation of that with a bullish report and steady to higher cash trade, the market could take out last week’s highs and add to the rally.
McBride says the two black swans the market is watching for include a reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports and the influx of beef imports. USDA estimates imports will be up 50 million pounds in 2026 as the administration attempts to lower beef prices. The key will be the timing of those imports.
