Corn and soybeans are higher and wheat mixed after Friday’s WASDE report.
USDA provided a slightly bullish surprise on corn and soybean yields and ending stocks but little change on wheat.
The biggest surprise, says Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net was the lower soybean yield by 1.4 bu. per acre to 51.7 bu., which is below trade estimates.
It was tied to dryness late in the growing season and harvest and resulted in USDA cutting yield by 2 bushels in Illinois, Minnesota and South Dakota, and 3 bushels in Iowa.
That dropped soybean production 121 million bushels. Yet, it was offset as USDA lowered exports by 25 million bushels, and crush by 15 million so ending stocks dropped just 80 million.
McCormicks says that is still ample and will not move the needle much on prices.
“And now you got to being carry out around 470 million less than what we think, but the reality is that’s still relatively comfortable, especially when you look at the world supply. It, even with this revision, you’re still looking at, I believe, the highest raw stocks carry out for beans on record and neither the first or second highest stocks use on record, assuming Brazil has this trendline yield crop.”
Corn yield was lowered .7 bushels per acre to a record 183.1 bushels.
Illinois saw a 4 bushel cut, Missouri 3 bushels, offset by Indiana which was up 7 bushels and North Dakota up 5 bushels.
McCormick says, “I think it is a surprise to the market. It was lower than the average trade guess. And it was a little bit lower than I thought. I thought the bean corn yields held in a little bit better than the beans did in harvest, but that’s what the government got. And I think in general, it’s probably pretty accurate.”
But again production and ending stocks were lowered just 60 million bushels, so McCormick says its not a big price mover.
He says, “In general, the carryout coming in below 1 .9 billion, I believe is a little bit friendly, but I’m not really bullish corn.”
Wheat balance sheets were nearly unchanged.
U.S. ending stock were up 3 million bushelsto 815 million bushels, with global stocks down 0.1 million metric tons at 257.6 million.
