Soybeans ended higher with corn mixed on Friday ahead of the release of the Pro Farmer final yield and production estimates.
Pro Farmer Corn Estimates Below USDA
Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre led the Eastern leg of this year’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
He says Pro Farmer estimated U.S. corn production at 16.204 billion bu. based on an average yield of 182.7 bu. per acre, which was down nearly 6 bu. from USDA’s estimate on Aug. 12.
Their corn estimate deviation was +-1% which ranges from 16.366 billion bu. to 16.042 billion bu. or 184.5 bu. to 180.9 bu. per acre.
Illinois and Iowa Corn Yield Down Substantially
Yield results from the top two corn producing states pulled down the national average yield.
Pro Farmer projected Illinois corn yield on the tour 23 bu. per acre lower than USDA’s August estimate and Iowa yield was 24 bu. lower at 198.43 bu.
Akre says while there was great yield potential, disease plagued crops in both states including heavy Southern Rust and Gray Leaf Spot pressure.
Will USDA Have to Lower the National Corn Yield?
Akre thinks the agency will have to adjust their national corn yield in September based on the findings of the tour, so 188.8 may be the highest yield the market will see in the 2025 growing season.
He says USDA used farmer surveys and satellite imagery to come up with their August yield projections and it was just a snapshot in time.
Since USDA released their August numbers the crop has seen the onset of heavy disease pressure in key corn producing areas which will drag down the national average.
Will This Further Boost Corn Prices?
Akre says December corn had positive price action following the August WASDE and built on that this week with the tailwind of lower corn yields out of Iowa and Illinois.
With Pro Farmer’s 6 bushel cut to the national corn yield the corn market will likely be able to continue to move higher.
Akre says, “I think the funds will take this as a sign to further cover their short positions.”
Pro Farmer Soybean Estimates Below USDA
For soybeans Pro Farmer projects U.S. production at 4.246 billion bu. with an average yield of 53.0 bu. per acre, which was down just .6 bu. from USDA’s August estimate.
Their average deviation on soybeans was +- 2% which equals 4.330 billion bu. to 4.161 billion bu. for production and 54.1 bu. to 51.9 bu. per acre on yield.
Big Pod Counts, Big Disease in the West
Pod counts were strong, especially in the East, but Akre says the key will be if the crop has enough moisture to realize that yield potential.
In the West pod counts were also solid but that crop is plagued by disease, including white mold and SDS, which could trim yield.
“As our Crop Tour route went further west, disease pressure in soybeans became much more obvious,” said . “We saw a lot of sudden death the further west we went. That is not to say we saw a bad crop. Beans will need some moisture to utilize some of the potential evident in the significant number of pods.”
Can Soybean Prices Continue Higher?
The soybean market was higher for the week with November posting 16 cent gains.
Akre says soybean prices have been moving higher since the bullish August WASDE and broke above key resistance on the charts this week with the help of lower than expected crop tour estimates.
He says after closing above those levels the soybean market should be able to continue higher with the push from Pro Farmer’s slightly lower national production estimate.
Plus, EPA released a somewhat positive decision on the pending 175 plus Smaller Refinery Exemptions (SREs) on Friday which helped to boost the bean oil market for a second day which supported soybeans.
