The Northern Plains was hit by another winter storm on Tuesday adding to the snowpack which ranges from several inches to several feet. So, is it too early to start talking about planting delays?
Generally the market doesn’t get overly concerned about slow planting or prevent plant until the first week of May or later. However, the market may need to build in weather premium a little earlier as the areas in the north under heavy snow pack account for about 2.5 billion bushels of corn production and 800 million bushels of soybean production. Plus, the biggest increases in planting intentions in the USDA report came in those states.
USDA already projected spring wheat plantings at only 10.57 million acres which is a 50-year low, and the top producer North Dakota was expected to see a 100,000 acre drop in seedings. This weather is putting that in even bigger jeopardy. Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says, “I’ve talked to a lot of guys in western North Dakota out to the Montana border and there’s snow all the way out there and usually they’re the ones that start getting in first with some wheat acres and things like that, but they haven’t seen any relief either getting any snow melt going so obviously the whole state is behind.”
Corn acres are also at risk in that area and USDA is projecting farmers will plant an additional 800,000 acres of corn in North Dakota, 350,000 in Minnesota and 150,000 in South Dakota. However, the forecast calls for a warmup after all this snow, which could cause flooding and even prevent plant. In 2022 there were 5.3 million acres of prevent plant for corn, soybeans and wheat, many coming from that same geography.
Kent Beadle, with Paradigm Futures says, “I think 5 million acres is a reasonable number and frankly I think that when it’s all said and done, we’re going to end up with a corn acreage number south of 90 million acres as opposed to 92 million.”
And while farmers may plant a few more soybeans under that scenario there will be soybean acres that will not get planted either which is a concern with the market relying on the increased seeding in the north.
USDA said farmers intended to plant an additional 850,000 acres of soybeans in North Dakota, 200,000 more in South Dakota, 100,000 in Minnesota and 140,000 in Wisconsin. That adds up to 1.3 million.
