Brazil industry group Unica predicts sugarcane processing will be down to 525 MMT, a 13.3% reduction. It also predicts a 8.7% reduction to 27.7 billion liters in total ethanol production. Unica expects more sugarcane to be allocated to ethanol production – 55.13% this year versus 53.93% last year.
“The projections reflect what we saw during this crop: on the demand side, we suffered with mobility restrictions; on the offer side, fields were affected by frosts and a historic drought,” Unica said.
There are uncertainties regarding the sugarcane area for the next cycle, with Unica noting recent frosts created even more doubts. Yields are expected to remain “well below” their potential of 85 MT per hectare. The average yield in 2021-22 totaled 67 MT per hectare, the lowest since at least 2003-04.
