Price action: December corn fell 11 1/4 cents to $4.30 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week up 3 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures sold off following today’s November USDA supply and demand report. The agency cut its U.S. corn crop estimate 62 million bu. from the September report. The average yield declined 0.7 bu. to 186.0 bu. per acre, though still 6.7 bu. above last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 90.047 million acres. USDA matched the Sept. 30 U.S. figure for 2024-25 ending stocks and increased total U.S. supplies by 144 million bu. USDA did increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bu. to a record-breaking 3.075 billion bushels. Global corn carryover was pegged by USDA at 291.7 MMT for 2024-25, up 7.5 MMT from September; and at 281.3 MMT for 2025-26, down 60,000 MT.
Today’s selling pressure did not do any significant chart damage but the bulls do not want to see follow-through selling pressure on Monday that could negate the price uptrend on the daily chart for December futures.
30-day outlook: Focus of traders is turning more to growing weather in South American corn regions. World Weather Inc. today said rain has been delayed for portions of northern Brazil since Thursday’s forecast and many areas from east-central and southeastern Mato Grosso to central and southern Goias will see little rain through next Thursday while the remainder of northern Brazil is still expected to see greater rain starting next Tuesday. Western into central Mato Grosso will be wettest through Monday and will see rain today and Monday. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance around the precipitation while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development with frequent rain in Paraguay and Mato Grosso do Sul through Monday. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks around two rounds of organized rain through the next week that will favor central and northern areas with rain infrequent and often light Nov. 22-28. Showers Nov. 22-28 should impact parts of the region and will slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed soon across these areas and in a growing part of western Argentina.
90-day outlook: Strong domestic and export demand for corn, as confirmed with today’s USDA data, should at least keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming months. The resumption of USDA export sales data will be welcomed by corn traders. More trade deals being inked between the U.S. and other countries should also improve global demand for U.S. corn.
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