Gregg Doud, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation and former U.S. Chief Ag Negotiator, offered a wide-ranging analysis of the Trump administration’s evolving tariff strategy, the economic dynamics shaping U.S./China relations and a bold vision for the future of American agriculture at the Crop Insurance Professional Association (CIPA) meeting in Kansas City.
According to Doud, President Donald Trump’s core trade philosophy is rooted in a disdain for the modern disposable economy. “Trump hates that you buy a washing machine from China and throw it out when it breaks. He wants Americans to buy durable U.S.-made goods and repair them — simple as that.” He said Trump is pursuing an industrial policy aimed at reshoring manufacturing and punishing economic models that undercut U.S. production.
Doud debunked the popular misunderstanding that tariffs apply to retail prices. “A 10% tariff on a $30,000 car doesn’t raise the price by $3,000. It applies to the import cost, not the sticker price,” he said. To illustrate, he noted that a 10% tariff on Colombian coffee affects the cost of a single cup by less than one cent. He also argued that in China’s case, the exporter — not the American consumer — is absorbing most of the cost. “They’re not a market economy. Their priorities are employment, industrial dominance, and keeping the economy afloat. That’s why they eat the tariff.”
Reflecting on the 33 negotiating sessions he held for the Phase One China deal, Doud celebrated the agricultural wins achieved but warned that “life is very different five years later.” He painted a bleak picture of China’s economy, pointing to falling real estate values, declining consumer confidence and stagnant hog prices — an especially troubling indicator in a country that holds half of the world’s hogs. On the potential impact of biotech in China, Doud issued a sharp warning: “If China’s corn yields go up by just 10%, they won’t need to import any corn from anyone. That could end the game for us.”
Doud described the EU as a massive, missed opportunity. U.S. ag exports to Europe have been flat at $12 billion for 50 years, while the U.S. imports more than $23 billion in ag products from the EU — $3 billion in dairy alone.
India, he said, is “full of potential” but paralyzed by internal politics. “The government subsidizes half a billion subsistence farmers to keep them out of the cities. That’s why they maintain 100% tariffs on agricultural imports.”
Turning to the dairy industry, Doud showcased a bullish trend: over $10 billion in new U.S. dairy processing investments through 2026. “Name another commodity anywhere in the world seeing this kind of investment,” he challenged. “The world knows the U.S. is where protein production can grow.” With exports now accounting for nearly 18% of U.S. dairy, Doud called it a “quiet revolution,” driven in part by social media-fueled trends like surging cottage cheese and butter consumption. “The TikTok effect is real,” he said.
Doud emphasized that U.S. agriculture’s top three issues are “labor, labor and labor.” He also pointed to water scarcity, especially in regions like the Texas Panhandle, warning producers to “quit growing corn and import it — use your water for forage if you want to survive.”
In parallel, he stressed the urgency of aligning federal regulation with ag innovation. “We’re way behind on biotech animal traits. If we can’t commercialize new technologies, we lose our competitive edge.”
In a compelling exchange about global competitiveness, Doud said America’s two biggest advantages are access to capital and robust futures markets. “We’re the world’s residual supplier because we have a futures market that rewards storing grain. No one else does.”
In closing, Doud invoked a map showing the shift in global trade allegiance — from countries that once counted the U.S. as their top trade partner to now favoring China. “Donald Trump was the first to introduce this slide. It explains why we’re doing what we’re doing.”
He concluded with a call to action: “Tariffs aren’t the end goal — they’re a tool. What matters most is that we get our industrial policy, our regulatory system and our tax code right. That’s how we keep U.S. agriculture globally competitive.”
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