Following are some topics Trivium China is noting ahead of China’s week-long Communist Party Congress that starts Sunday:
- How powerful will Xi Jinping emerge from the 20th Party Congress? It is all but certain that Xi will stay on for an unprecedented third term as Party General Secretary. But will he get everything he wants?
- Will Xi take on new positions or titles — like “Party Chairman,” “People’s leader,” or “Great Helmsman”?
- Will any candidates to succeed Xi be identified?
- Will current Premier Li Keqiang retire — or move to another role?
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- Who will be designated to take over as the premier if Li retires or moves on?
- Who will be designated to take over as the new vice premier in charge of finance?
- Will the Party Congress report suggest a tactical or strategic shift in China’s foreign policy, as competition with the West intensifies?
- Will the Party Congress herald a shift in the mainland’s Taiwan policy. Trivium says the “most significant would be for Beijing to put forward a concrete timeline for reunification, which would represent a huge geopolitical gamble, implying the strong possibility of military action against Taiwan. Alternately, the Party Congress may simply reaffirm Beijing’s commitment to the cross-strait status quo (most likely) or extend an olive branch to Taipei (rather less likely).”
- Read more from Pro Farmer.
