SovEcon says the average third grade wheat price in Russia dropped to 11,550 rubles ($147) per metric ton as of March 29 – the lowest since the week of Nov. 27, 2019. The firms says the decline is attributed to ample wheat supplies and weak demand from exporters.
According to Rosstat, wheat stocks held by commercial firms reached 17.4 MMT as of March 1, which is 82% higher than the five-year average. At the same time, demand for wheat is declining due to falling export prices. As of March 22, SovEcon estimated the average FOB price for Russian wheat at $279 per metric ton, the lowest since August 2021.
SovEcon says, “Low domestic prices are likely to support active wheat shipments from Russia during the few months. However, we don’t expect the country to increase exports substantially from current levels because of infrastructure bottlenecks.”
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