For the week March corn was down 4 ¼ cents, December corn was steady, March soybeans were 4 ½ higher, November soybeans gained 1 ½, March soybean meal was $.60 higher, March bean oil soared 184 points, March soft red winter wheat was up 24 ¾, March hard red winter wheat was 29 ¾ higher and March hard red spring wheat was up 15.
Gulke Group Disagrees with USDA’s Acreage Outlook
USDA released its trade and commodity price outlooks at this week’s USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum.The agency released its 10-year baseline projections including the outlook for the 2026-27 growing season.
New USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez says they are forecasting corn acres will fall 4.8 million from last year to 94 million acres, bringing ending stocks down to 1.8 billion bu. Conversely the agency is projecting a nearly 4 million acre increase in soybeans to 85 million acres, but ending stocks will stay nearly steady with this year.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the numbers his firm is compiling from their farmer client survey do not jive with USDA’s first estimates for the season.“If you look at what the baseline was last year, it was 94 million. It’s 94 this year but last year we produced way more corn on 98.8 million acres. I think the incentive to produce more corn and less beans than what they think is there. We’ll see how it all looks as we get more surveys in.”
Last year the Gulke Group’s farmer survey showed close to 99 million or more acres of corn.“At the time we thought that couldn’t be right, so we trimmed it to, I think, 98.6 or something. And nine months later, it turned out to be 98. So, we’re looking at our numbers very closely and we do not agree with USDA,” he explains.
Positive Biofuels Outlook
USDA also projected only a 5 million bu. increase in soybean ending stocks in the new marketing year, even with farmers planting 4 million more acres.He says part of the reason is a better demand picture with exports raised to 1.7 billion bu. with China back in the market.
USDA is also looking at a more favorable biofuels policy environment and acknowledged the ramp up in biomass-based diesel production through the new 45Z tax credit.Plus, USDA’s forecast considers EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard RVOs for 2026 and 2027, which were announced in June 2025.EPA is expected to release new blending levels in March with proposed mandates of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel annually, up from 3.35 billion this year.
A significant shift in these proposed RVOs from previous RFS regulations is the stipulation that biofuels either imported or produced domestically using foreign feedstocks will receive only half the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits compared to biofuels produced within the United States using U.S.-based feedstocks. Given this assumption, the use of soybean oil for biofuel in 2026/27 is expected to rise to 17.3 billion pounds, up 2.5 billion from the prior marketing year.
Crush was also projected to increase 85 million bu. to 2.655 billion bu. and Gulke says that will help keep soybean prices strong. “Even if Chin doesn’t buy another 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, we could still be looking at a 250 to 270 million bu. carryout,” according to Gulke.
If that’s the case the 4 million acre increase in soybean acres USDA is expecting may not be enough to meet the increased demand.
Agricultural Trade Policies Under Trump’s Paradigm USDA Under Secretary Luke Lindberg and USTR Ambassador Julie Callahan also discussed current trade negotiations and highlighted market access wins for U.S. agriculture.
Gulke says the focus was on the new paradigm in ag trade under the Trump administration and emphasized that developing new export markets takes time.“You don’t turn around a ship, you know, a big ship in the ocean quickly. They explained how they are going to expand trade with or without the tariffs and get a better playing field.”
Gulke was also impressed with how the administration is making U.S. farmers a priority. “One official said, if you look at the USDA seal, it says it’s the USDA. It’s not the world D.A. or it’s not China D.A. or Canadian D.A. It’s all about the American farmer, and we’re putting him first,” he says. “I thought, thank goodness, finally, we have something to be positive about looking forward to that being fulfilled.”
So overall, Gulke says he is feeling more optimistic about the outlook for grain farmers and U.S. agriculture in the next few years.
Gulke says for more information on this topic or to learn more about the Gulke Group’s annual outlook meeting in March contact him at info@gulkegroup.com.
