All eyes are on the corn supply and demand numbers in USDA’s September WASDE report but there will be plenty of other information to focus on. This will be the first report where USDA looks at objective field data making the numbers significant for the market. However, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service has announced a change in how they’re reviewing and reporting acreage. But will it make a difference?
NASS says they will include any justifiable changes in the estimates for planted and harvested acreage for corn and soybeans, sorghum and sugar beets. The division will review all available data, including survey data, satellite-based data, and the latest information from USDA’s Farm Service Agency and Risk Management Agency for planted and harvested acreage for these additional crops. That’s a practice they don’t normally do until the October report.
The division normally reviews and includes only chickpeas, cotton, dry edible peas, lentils, peanuts, and rice. So Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag says this is a change. “Instead of doing it in October they’re gonna do it now and if they deem it they will make some adjustments to the acres number. They feel that they’ve gotten enough information to do this a month earlier than what they normally would.
Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors views it as a good move. “We’re in such a critical point for markets getting the price right that I think that they feel that getting this information out earlier than normal would be a huge benefit to providing that kind of transparency.”
And Martinson expects there could be slight adjustments to both corn and soybean acres. He says, “I do think we’re gonna see lower corn acres come into play. I think we could see a half million acres, 500,000 acre drop as far as corn is concerned. I would on the flip side look for about a 250,000 acre increase in soybeans.” The average trade guesses have harvested acres on corn down from 125,000 to 170,000 from August depending on the survey, with soybean acreage up about 80,000.
For corn the trade is also looking for a nearly 3 bushel cut in corn yield and 170 million bushel (mb) cut to ending stocks. For soybeans the average trade guess is about a half bushel drop in soybean yield but less than a 5 mb increase in carryover.
Pro Farmer expects the biggest possible change in cotton acres, which they say could go up by 1.2 million acres. However, it wouldn’t make a big change in ending stocks which are estimated at 1.86 million bales, up just slightly from August.
In October, NASS will review acreage for canola, dry edible beans, and sunflowers.
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