Major changes weren’t anticipated for USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE), but there were still a few surprises — mostly for corn.
Corn
Traders expected an increase in exports the last two reports and the agency finally provided it. In the report, U.S. corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels, though this is partially offset by a reduction in feed and residual use. Ending stocks were cut 75 million bushels to a total of 1.465 billion bushels.
“In the February report and the March WASDE report, participants were looking for that corn export number to go right back up, but it was just too soon. It just made sense for USDA to wait until after the stocks report came out,” says Brian Splitt with AgMarket.net.
Splitt says the old crop corn carryout falling under 1.5 billion is price friendly and will help cushion the higher new crop balance sheets expected in the May WASDE, which will work in the nearly 4.7 million acre increase on corn.
“Assuming USDA sticks with a 181-type of a yield for their trendline yield on the May WASDE report, which will be the first new crop balance sheet that we get to take a look at, this reduction old crop stocks should keep the new crop balance sheet looking 1.9 or lower,” Splitt says. “I don’t think we’ll see a 2 billion bushel carryout on that report.”
Global trade changes for 2024/2025 include higher projected corn exports for the U.S. Imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, Turkey and Peru. Global corn ending stocks are decreased 1.3 million to 287.7 million tons.
The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Soybeans
In the April 10 report, U.S. soybean imports and crush were increased as ending stocks and soybean oil for biofuels decreased.
USDA left South American production numbers static, but they did increase last year’s Brazilian soybean production by 1.5 million metric tons.
“This is two months in a row where USDA has gone back and made some type of a revision to last year’s South American production, so the world bean stocks did get bigger by way of an increase in last year’s bean production,” Splitt says. “This had nothing to do with the estimate of this year’s crop.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised $0.02 to $0.45 cents per pound.
Wheat
USDA’s increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 27 million bushels was slightly bearish and came from a 25 million bushel decrease in exports and 10 million bushel increase in imports for a second straight month. World stocks were raised around a half million tons.
“The increase in ending stocks has come from two adjustments,” Splitt says. “There was an increase in imports for wheat and a reduction in exports. Between the two, it totals 25 million bushels. But the thing that’s odd is they did the same exact thing last month. They increased imports and they reduced exports, and it was the same exact amount as well.”
The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.
