Trade estimates ahead of USDA’s June 30 Acreage report indicate the market isn’t anticipating much change in acreage figures verses March intentions. However, quarterly stocks are anticipated to be below last year for corn, soybeans and wheat and could provide the surprise, if there is one.
The average trade guess on corn acres is 91.85 million down just 140,000 from March with soybean acreage at 87.67 million up 160,000. The shift comes from delayed planting in the Northern Plains. All wheat acres are pegged at 49.7 million, down 200,000 with abandonment of hard red wheat acres and 60,000 fewer spring wheat acres. However, market experts in the Dakotas believe farmers planted even fewer acres of all crops due to prevent plant.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, Fargo, N.D., says while prevent plant acres will be down in North Dakota and the Northern Plains from a year ago, he thinks there were acres that went unplanted because the market incentive wasn’t there.
“I’ve been thinking we’re going to see about half a million fewer spring wheat acres just because of late planting. I think we’re going to see half a million less corn acres as well. Most of the acre increase was for corn and soybeans and was expected to come in North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota. I don’t think all those acres got planted.”
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, Britton, S.D., also farms in what has been a wet pocket of the state.
“Earlier in the winter when I was under 18 feet of snow, I thought we were going to have a lot of prevent plant. Now the weather did a complete 180 and flipped and we were able to get most of it planted, but there’s still prevent plant in northeast South Dakota and North Dakota,” he says. “I’m going to go out and say I think acres are lower than what USDA was forecasting earlier.”
The grains stocks estimate for corn is 4.26 billion bushels, down 94 million from last year. Soybeans are at 812 million bushels, down 156 million, and wheat is at 611 million bushels, down 87 million. Last quarter, USDA surprised the market with lower-than-expected stocks, but the tighter supplies still haven’t shown up in the WASDE reports.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, St. Paul, Minn., says: “If by chance those stocks numbers end up being lower once again. USDA is going to be forced to make some adjustments. If you look at the inverses in the futures market right now, it does bring into question whether or not those bushels are really there.”
The market is signaling tight old crop supplies, as well, with strong old crop cash prices, but the question is whether it will be confirmed by USDA.
