The Week Ahead: Mar. 28-Apr. 3, 2016

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Lawmakers in both the House and Senate are off, with the Senate returning the week of April 4 and the House the following week. When they return, the budget will be the main focus and much of that attention will shift to writing the details of the spending plans for each of the US government agencies. Plus, the House will continue to battle for an overall budget resolution for Fiscal 2017, even though odds are unclear on whether they will be successful. With Congress out, reports of note include Friday’s Employment numbers and USDA reports on Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks released Thursday.

Regarding economic reports, the most important comes Friday with the Employment situation. But leading up to that, updates include releases Monday on International Trade in Goods, Personal Income & Outlays, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Tuesday will bring release of the S&P Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence updates, followed by the ADP private sector employment figures on Wednesday. Thursday brings release of the weekly jobless claims data and the Chicago PMI reading. But the big day is clearly Friday, with the March Employment update along with PMI and ISM manufacturing readings, Consumer Sentiment and Construction Spending. Foreign economic and market developments always hold potential to impact the markets as traders gear up for what lies ahead on the economic front.

There are also plenty of Fed speakers to continue the focus on vides from US central bankers relative to timing of the next increase in interest rates. And, traders will want to see if 13 days makes a difference in the tone from Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she is set to speak on Tuesday. Others also on the schedule that day include San Francisco’s Williams and two appearances by Dallas Fed’s Kaplan. Chicago Fed’s Evans is on the schedule for Wednesday along with New York Fed’s Dudley while the week wraps up with Cleveland Fed’s Mester. How These Fed officials lay out the rate-rise potential looms large, especially after hawks got a little more notice over the past week than doves did.

US agriculture will be fixated on Thursday, the release day for the all-important Prospective Plantings report along with the March Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks figures. While the stocks figures can always provide some potential for markets to move, the views on producer intentions for 2016 crop acreage will be watched very closely given current prices for crops like corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. Any trade surprises could also move markets while the Weekly Export Sales report could also impact prices. Weather will stay as a factor, with traders now very sensitive to any weather impacts. Plus, there will be an update on key states for winter wheat. Soybean traders will also continue to focus on Brazil to see if their currency fluctuations continue.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.