The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is mapping out a comprehensive, long-term demand strategy that its president says is essential to “keeping farmers farming” at a time when production continues to climb and profit margins remain tight.
NCGA President Jed Bower, an Ohio corn and soybean grower, says the new association-backed study takes an extraordinarily long view — examining corn demand over the next 250 years. The study identifies near-, mid-, and long-term growth buckets that together could unlock billions of bushels of additional use.
Short-Term Focus: E15 Infrastructure and Consumer Savings
In the immediate future, Bower says the NCGA remains laser-focused on expanding the use of E15 and, crucially, securing the regulatory and market certainty needed to spur retailer investment in infrastructure.
“We keep circling back to E15. We have to have that,” Bower says. “We’ve got to have the certainty in the market for the retailers and everybody in the chain to build out that infrastructure.”
With many consumers still feeling the financial strain of higher fuel costs, Bower views E15 as an immediate, practical solution.
“The American consumer now is struggling to pay for these fuel prices at the pump. Yes, they’re coming down, but they’re still really high,” he says. “When we can save the consumer 20 or 30 cents, we know they’re going to grasp onto this, and in turn drive demand.”
Mid-Term Opportunity: Maritime Fuel Could Add 3 Billion Bushels
As the NCGA assesses its midterm opportunities, Bower reports that the single largest one on the horizon is the maritime shipping sector.
“There’s huge potential there — if we captured 10% of that market globally, that’s 3 billion bushels of corn,” Bower told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory on Tuesday.
Bower notes that this level of demand is exactly what is required to improve the balance sheet for corn growers as rising trend yields continue to push production higher. Ultimately, he believes emerging markets like maritime fuel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and bio-based polymers could absorb up to half of the corn currently grown by U.S. farmers.
This demand cannot come soon enough, Bower adds, noting it is common knowledge that current corn prices fail to cover production costs for many operations.
“Let’s be honest, we need to increase the prices because it’s not sustainable with what it’s costing us to raise a corn crop right now,” he says.
Long-Term Vision: SAF and Bio-Based Polymers
Looking further down the road, the NCGA-backed analysis highlights sustainable aviation fuel and the polymer markets — including fibers and plastics derived from ethanol — as massive long-term demand drivers.
Referencing the study, Flory noted that it pegs the potential demand for SAF alone at 1.7 billion bushels of corn. Bower confirmed the figure, adding that pairing aviation demand with maritime fuel and polymer uses could completely transform the agricultural market, eventually requiring billions more bushels than U.S. farmers currently produce.
While corn-based plastics and fibers have been discussed in the industry for decades, Bower believes the NCGA sees a renewed opportunity today, particularly where consumer brands can absorb some of the initial premium.
“We’re not the most cost-competitive in this market,” Bower acknowledges. “But as we’re looking to dive into this market further, are there places where we can sell a bio-based material, and there’s enough built-in markup where it makes sense for that company to lean on a bio-based product?”
He points to apparel and similar consumer goods as prime examples.
“We’re seeing some companies grasp onto this idea because there’s enough margin in there — and again, it’s better for the environment, better for the earth, everything that goes with it, and in turn we’re helping American farmers,” Bower says.
USMCA Remains Critical to Corn Exports
Even as the association eyes these frontier markets, Bower stresses that traditional export channels under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remain critical. Mexico stands as the top destination for U.S. corn and dry distillers grains, while Canada is the primary market for U.S. ethanol.
“The American corn farmer has to have USMCA,” Bower says. “We cannot give up our No. 1 markets. We have to have those to stay competitive in the world market, and we’re already behind at this point.”
The push to protect these trade relationships comes at a pivotal moment. July 1 marked the official start of the first formal review of the USMCA since it took effect in 2020 to replace NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). What was initially envisioned as a routine update is now unfolding against a backdrop of heightened trade tensions.
Bower notes that while the NCGA understands the Trump administration’s desire to secure the strongest possible terms during the review, North American buyers are eager to keep trade flowing.
“Talking with the Mexican delegation and the Canadian delegation, they want our products. They talk about how great they are, how reliable they are,” Bower says. “The American farmer wants to keep that relationship up. We understand the administration’s thought process, but we’re going to continue to keep pushing and keep explaining why this is so important to the American corn farmer.”
Input Costs: Relief on Phosphate Duties, Concerns Over Glyphosate
Turning to the expense side of the ledger, Bower welcomes the Trump administration’s recent decision to temporarily lift countervailing duties (CVDs) on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers — a victory he says comes after a long, hard-fought battle by agricultural groups.
“That is amazing news,” Bower says. “We’ve been fighting this since its inception.”
The timing of the decision is critical, as growers look ahead to post-harvest fertilizer purchasing decisions this fall.
“We already understand there’s boats in the water on their way with phosphate from Morocco,” Bower notes. “This is truly something the American farmer as a whole has needed, and we’re glad to realize that it has come through.”
However, a separate trade issue threatens to push input costs back up. A pending request to impose countervailing duties on generic glyphosate imported from China — a move backed by Bayer/Monsanto — has drawn opposition from the NCGA.
“We don’t feel that’s the best strategy right now,” Bower says.
The full conversation with Jed Bower can be heard on the AgriTalk podcast with Chip Flory, available at the link below:
