Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the grain markets have seen massive fund selling this week pushing corn to new contract lows but it has been spurred by a number of bearish factors.
Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved increasing the percentage of ethanol mixed in gasoline.
The House and Senate reconciliation bills both propose major changes to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, aiming to extend and reshape federal support for biofuels.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says grains failed to extend gains on Friday hitting chart resistance, but there was another big factor.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says Friday’s technical action in soybeans signals to him EPA’s higher blending levels for bio-mass based diesel for 2026 are priced into the soybean and bean oil markets.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains are seeing a quiet session on Friday with thin post-holiday trade. However, at least wheat is failing to extend the big gains seen on Wednesday.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says wheat led the charge higher in the grains inserting war and weather premium but also seeing some short covering. Cattle and hogs recovered from Tuesday’s collapse.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after tanking Tuesday due to geopolitical and war concerns and the lower day in the stock market.
Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing says grains saw technical buying on Tuesday while livestock fell with the financial markets on the conflict between Iran and Israel and a flip flop on ICE raids in packing plants.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says grains are slightly higher Tuesday morning. While outside markets are reacting to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Tomm Pftizenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage says soybeans saw some follow through buying on Monday but it was somewhat disappointing considering the limit up move in soybean oil.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures started the day higher in recovery mode after a poor technical close on Friday and a bearish reversal lower for the week. Soybeans continue to rally on the heels of the surge in bean oil on EPA’s surprise biofuels news.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the news EPA is raising blending mandates for biomass-based diesel above expectations came as a surprise but was positive for farmers and the biofuels industry.
Soybeans were up sharply on Friday with soybean oil locked limit up on all of the contracts. Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says it was in reaction to the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations, which were especially bullish for biomass based diesel.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing risk off selling tied to the news overnight of escalating war between Iran and Israel which has the financial markets sharply lower. Bean oil is limit up on news of higher blending levels for biomass based diesel.
Senate Republicans on Wednesday released the agriculture section of their budget reconciliation bill.
Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing says corn was slightly higher with tighter ending stocks, while soybeans fell on the rumor of lower RVO levels.
USDA lowered old crop corn ending stocks 50 million bushels, but Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net, says the market doesn’t feel like it’s trading a 1.365 billion bushel carryout nor do the July/December spreads.
Craig Turner with StoneX says the markets were initially charged by news the U.S. and China had reached a trade framework. However, the deal was lacking in detail just like so many of the trade deals touted by the administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says the grain market is getting some support from news a framework has been worked out between the U.S. and China to at least call a truce on tariffs and remove restrictions on rare earth mineral imports.
The U.S. Department of Justice has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit to extend its stay on a lower court’s decision that found most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs illegal.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the corn market saw a technical bounce and even some bull spreading on Tuesday, but most of it was tied to short covering. While cattle reacted to ICE raids at Omaha, NE meat plants.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says old crop corn made another new low for the move overnight with national crop ratings improving by 3% to 71% good to excellent. The corn complex continues to face headwinds from weather, with no major threats on the horizon.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says Monday’s action in the grain markets was disappointing as the funds came back into sell in the grain complex.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade shattered previous records last week and the futures are continuing to make new all-time highs on Monday in both live and feeder cattle futures.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the gains were impressive considering the ongoing uncertainty regarding weather, trade and the geopolitical environment.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says grains also saw mostly higher weekly closes mostly as a result of technical buying.
Republicans on the Senate Ag Committee are seeking to scale back the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts proposed in the House’s sweeping budget reconciliation bill.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Friday and made all-time highs once again. Futures are still chasing record cash.
The BRICS countries — led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are actively working to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade, a process known as de-dollarization.