Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says grains saw technical buying led by wheat and surged to end the week. However, there were also some big fundamental drivers.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are rallying but cattle are seeing some selling pressure again ahead of a three day weekend but are holding chart support.
Brazil’s BRICS presidency this year will not push for a shared currency.
Rich Nelson of Allendale says grains closed quietly higher with corn and wheat supported by strong weekly exports.
Global exporters like the U.S. and Brazil may need to adjust expectations.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the rally in corn was fueled by fund buying especially after inflation data in the CPI ran hot. Pressure in soybeans came from South American hedge pressure.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says after a lower opening Wednesday corn recovered nicely on fund buying and a fresh export sale.
A majority of Argentines support President Javier Milei’s plan to pursue a free trade agreement with the U.S.
Brian Grete with Pro Farmers says grains sold off into the close Tuesday disappointed about the lack of changes in the domestic balance sheets in the WASDE.
USDA left domestic balance sheets for corn and soybeans unchanged in the February WASDE but did make slight revisions in South American production.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says corn held its own on Monday and closed higher, squaring ahead of the February WASDE.
Brad Kooima, with Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live and feeder cattle futures have bounced off trendline support, at least so far. Grains are positioning ahead of USDA reports, watching weather and tariff news.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says grains took a pause Friday in preparation for the February WASDE but is in the critical price discovery process before planting.
Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says grains pulled back Friday on profit taking after hitting chart resistance and with uncertainty about trade and administrative policies.
House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), are scrambling to finalize their one-bill proposal, with details expected Monday.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after the trifecta that tanked the futures Thursday and pulled down cash as well. Grains are lower on profit taking and SA weather.
The Senate Ag Committee hearing on the economic situation for U.S. agriculture highlighted significant concerns about potential tariffs and their impact on the farming sector.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says grain markets rebounded late session led by wheat.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says ag markets continue to ride the roller coaster of headlines about tariffs and policy changes being imposed by the Trump Administration. This is driving fund and algorithm trading.
This marks a shift from Trump’s first term.
Kevin Good, Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis with CattleFax, says the herd is still shrinking and so are slaughter levels and that will mean more record prices in 2025.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures continue to consolidate off recent record highs in routine profit taking mode. Grains extended gains on hopes for a China deal and the pause on tariffs for Canada and Mexico.
Brazil imported a record 44.3 MMT of fertilizers during 2024.
A strategic pivot toward a more open trade policy.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says grains opened lower on Monday but recovered shortly after the opening when news broke that the U.S. would delay tariffs on Mexico for 30 days to allow negotiations.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grain and livestock futures opened mostly lower in response to tariffs imposed on China, Canada and Mexico over the weekend and retaliatory measures from those countries.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says corn and soybeans posted lower weekly closes, which was the first time in several weeks for corn. So is the bull market in corn over?
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says most markets had a negative reaction to to the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canada starting this weekend and possible retaliation.
Chinese state-owned grain trader COFCO is committed to Brazil’s soy-buying moratorium.