Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
The move follows President Donald Trump’s renewed claims that China has influence over the canal and his pledge to take control of the strategic waterway.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, says a combination of factors supported the rally in grains, which all scored new highs for the move.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grain markets breathed a sigh of relief there are no immediate Chinese tariffs being imposed by the Trump Administration, that sent the U.S. dollar index sharply lower which is also supportive.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the strength in corn can pull the soybean markets and maybe even wheat higher for a handful of fundamental reasons.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading Group says corn closed above technical resistance of $4.80 despite the uncertainty of South American weather and tariffs under a new administration.
Weighing on Scott Irwin’s mind is whether U.S. grain growers need to get some downside price protection for 2025 crops.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are down a second day despite more record cash trade. However, the row crop futures are trying to recover on strong China economic news.
Updated production forecasts from the International Grains Council (IGC).
A breakdown of new, returning and departing members
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities says corn saw some fund buying on tight supplies and with help from concerns about Argentina weather. However, soybeans couldn’t follow, pulled down by meal.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says corn and soybeans are watching South American weather with hot dry conditions mainly in Argentina and Southern Brazil but some rain in the weekend forecast.
The Department of Energy and other federal agencies released a report on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says corn and soybeans saw profit taking after stretching to new highs for the move as the markets were overbought.
Craig Turner, with StoneX, says corn and soybeans saw some early pressure on profit taking after hitting chart resistance and some farmer selling was also noted, both from U.S. and South American producers.
Cutler believes the upcoming challenge lies in overcoming entrenched trade disparities, including subsidies, state-owned enterprises and cross-border data flows.
The latest USDA American Farms and Ranches at a Glance report offers insights to how row crop growers are making a go of it financially in 2025.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says corn and soybeans continued to see gains from strong technical closes on Friday and extending the report rally.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle futures are consolidating which is healthy. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans make new highs for the move still digesting USDA’s bullish report data and the shocking cuts in yield, production and ending stocks.
Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net, says South America is setting up for a record crop. “I think at this point Brazil will have a huge crop, 172 to 175 MMT, that’ll more than offset at what we lost here in the U.S.”
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says as of Friday’s report, USDA has dropped corn ending stocks nearly 1 billion bushels from their initial estimate during the February 2024 Ag Outlook Forum when the agency projected carryout at 2.532 billion bushels based on trend-line yield.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration aims for a “dollar-for-dollar” response.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says it will be tough for corn to run to $5 because report just confirmed what the market already knew.
USDA lowered corn yield a whopping 3.8 bu. and soybeans 1 bu. which led to lower production and ending stocks.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are digesting another week of record cash trade at $320 dressed, up $5 and the South traded some $200 live, up $4.
Grains are firmer ahead of USDA reports and 45Z guidance.
Grains are firmer ahead of USDA reports and 45Z guidance.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn has rallied nearly $1 and soybeans around 50 cents off the lows. So production and ending stocks will need to come in well under trade estimates in the USDA reports for prices to push higher.
Farmers and trade anticipate final numbers from the crop production summary on Friday. The latest information from WASDE, winter wheat seedings and quarterly stocks will be available tomorrow.
Federal Reserve officials expect inflation to continue slowing this year, but also saw a rising risk that price pressures may remain sticky.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from some rain added to the 11-15 day weather forecast in Argentina and Southern Brazil and USDA report positioning. Cattle saw profit taking and maybe some reaction to the border opening to Mexican feeder cattle imports soon.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grain markets are seeing early pressure with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index back near recent highs, but also watching South American weather and ahead of USDA reports on Friday.
Grassley criticized EPA for relying heavily on foreign records to verify compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), calling the approach inadequate.