Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Beef production is now forecast to increase marginally from year-ago and rise another 4.1% next year.
Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says grains saw follow through selling pressure after a lower day Friday. The complex also saw spillover from the risk off day in outside markets including the higher dollar and lower crude oil.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are mostly higher early Monday on better cash news and trying to negate Friday’s reversal. Grains are seeing pressure from harvest and South American rain chances.
The October WASDE effectively solidified the supply side of the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets for the 2024-25 marketing year, though Gulke was surprised USDA didn’t raise yields because harvest has never been so good on his farm.
Unlike some past years, the October report didn’t provide much for the bulls or the bears. USDA did raise corn yield 0.2 bu. per acre to a record 183.8 bu. and lowered soybean yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 53.1 bu.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures says after a non eventful WASDE, grains saw some profit taking heading into the weekend with row crops seeing harvest pressure.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures need to take out the next layer of chart resistance to move higher. Grains continue to add war and weather premium and that shouldn’t change unless the WASDE is extremely bearish.
The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s latest Ag Finance Update showed farm debt has risen, but delinquencies are low.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says the row crop markets are seeing continued pressure from three main fundamentals.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says wheat is higher adding war premium but soybeans and corn are seeing harvest pressure and trading South American weather.
Exports of Canadian grain for the first month of the 2024-25 marketing year were off to a good start with data from the Canadian Grain Commission showing increases for several crops.
The Amazon region of northern Brazil continues to suffer under the worst drought in 120 years, resulting in the lowest water level at the Port of Manaus in 122 years.
The Container Port Performance Index 2023 reveals a stark contrast between Chinese and American port efficiencies.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says wheat was supported by light fund short covering as traders were adding in some geopolitical risk premium.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cash cattle trade will likely be steady this week which may mean the futures could stall out. He thinks the party could be over in row crops.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, thinks the party is over in the grains, at least for now, due to several key factors.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says several factors combined to pressure the grain markets Friday. Whether or not the rally is over depends on global weather and the October WASDE.
India approved a 101 billion rupee (US $1.2 billion) program to double edible oil production in the country within seven years, aiming to reduce dependence on costlier imports.
Brazil is projected to import its highest amount of diesel in two years, driven by a strong economy and increased fuel demand.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says grains are in transition right now as the funds have likely covered most of their short positions and are looking for signals for their next move.
CARB is maintaining its proposal from August to limit credit generation for certain crop-based biofuels, while expanding the scope of feedstocks affected.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says grains saw profit taking after running up into some chart resistance.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are well supported on higher cash. Grains seeing pressure as funds may be out of ammunition.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says funds have covered most of their record short position in grains and they are not likely to go long.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage, says historically, when corn and soybeans have a fall rally in August and September the markets top out in the October.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office and USDA on Monday detailed strides made in expanding market access and boosting agricultural exports for U.S. producers.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds continue to cover shorts in the grain markets but there are some fundamentals also helping to support the rally.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says corn continues to move higher on fund buying and tighter corn stocks from USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report. He thinks corn could eventually take out resistance on the charts and move higher.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says most of the strength in corn and wheat was due to end of quarter fund short covering.