As the U.S ushers in a new presidential administration, Americans have been hearing a surprising amount of news about Canada. Perhaps most surprising was the recent announcement that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign in the next couple of months when his political party chooses a replacement.
President-elect Donald Trump, meanwhile, has threatened Canada, one of our leading trade partners, with high tariffs. He’s even suggested that perhaps our neighbor to the north should consider becoming America’s 51st state. For an inside view on these and other events, Shaun Haney from RealAgriculture, Canada’s leading national agriculture publication, appeared on the latest episode of Unscripted with hosts Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths.
About Trudeau’s announcement, Haney tells the hosts, “It’s been a long time coming. This should have happened a long time ago. He had no chance to win the next election.” Haney believes that the next prime minister will probably be Pierre Poilievre, leader of the country’s conservative party.
“Since the pandemic, things have changed,” Haney says. “The world has moved toward more of a conservative position in terms of leadership. Canada, in some ways, is late to the party.” Haney feels that Poilievre would be a natural successor in the current political climate. “He comes from the reform side of the conservative party. He’s a fiscal conservative, but I wouldn’t say he’s socially to the right. He’s more in the center.”
While Haney sees clear differences between Poilievre and Trump, the similarities could lead to smoother trade negotiations. “He will mesh better [than Trudeau] because he’s a no-nonsense kind of guy,” Haney says. “He’s talked a lot about how Canada needs this trade deal, and the U.S. needs Canadian goods. So let’s figure it out. But he’s a career politician so how will Trump react to him?” The key to the trade talks, Haney says, is to finish them quickly.
An important issue for agriculture in both countries is the carbon tax, which Haney believes will be erased under a Poilievre administration. “His mantra has been ‘ax the tax,’” Haney says. “That will be number one on his list.”
As for Canada becoming the next U.S. state, he agrees that his country has become complacent about national defense due to its proximity to America, but he takes such possibilities with a big grain of salt. If it should happen, Tyne promises to send him a welcome package that includes light beer, an American flag Speedo and Buc-ee’s nuggets.
