Last year’s August WASDE report sent shockwaves through the corn market with a record 188.8 bushel yield and 2 million more harvested acres. Going into the report traders were concerned about a repeat performance this year.
However, while USDA did hike harvested acres for both corn and soybeans, it was offset by lower yields. An aggressive 2.3 bu. per acre cut to corn and strong demand helped tighten corn balance sheets.
Corn Yield Cut Highlights Bullish August Report
The bullish headline of the August WASDE came from the cut in corn yield to 180.7 bushels per acre. The 2.3 bushel cut fully offset the increase in harvested acres.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, explains USDA’s adjustments.
“They revised harvested acre up 1.2 million. So kind of in line what people are thinking. And like you said, they did make a yield adjustment. They did lower the corn yield 2.3 bushels. So the net effect for the production, interesting enough, was pretty much unchanged. So the less yield was offset by the higher acres,” he says.
As a result, corn production came in at 16.013 billion bu. However, more importantly new crop ending stocks were lowered by 137 million bu. to only 1.653 billion due to strong usage.
“The government was looking for strong demand. The trade has been looking for strong export demand. They raised new crop exports by 75 million, and they raised old crop exports by 75 million, netting a sharp drop in ending stocks,” McCormick says.
Will Corn Yields Fall Further?
Corn yields in Western Corn Belt states were down significantly from last year with Nebraska at 183 bu. per acre, down 11 bu. from 2025. South Dakota is down 20 bu., Kansas down 19 bu. and North Dakota fell 16 bu.
However, that was offset by higher yields in the East with Iowa’s corn yield at 216, up 6 bushels from 2025, Indiana was pegged at a record 206 bu. per acre, up 2 bu. from last year. Illinois came in at 212, down just 2 bu. from last year.
However, those estimates may be too high according to McCormick.
“Last year, the big crop came from the west. The east had an OK crop. This year, it is going to be if we do end up managing to keep this crop over a 180 national yield, it is going to be the east. I would argue that’s going to be doing the heavy lifting,” he says.
Soybeans See Acreage Increase, Yield Decline
USDA made similar adjustments for soybeans. The agency raised harvested acres 1.4 million but lowered yield .3 bushels to 52.7.
McCormick thinks yield could flex with farmer surveys taken as of August 1 and beneficial rains falling in many areas of the Corn Belt after that date.
“They did lower that yield by three-tenths of a bushel. It’ll be interesting to see if that yield stands. In general, the market is usually bearish yield pressure arguments when you get rain in August. And in general, a lot of the Midwest have seen rain in August,” he says.
Bottom line: Soybean production was raised 44 million bushels. New crop ending stocks were raised 10 million bu. to 320 million.
Yet, McCormick says that is still a tight carryout by historical standards and demand is strengthening with soybean crush is at record pace and that was acknowledged by USDA.
“So they raised crush 30 million, offsetting a big chunk of the raise in production,” McCormick says.
China Could Tighten Soybean Balance Sheet
USDA left soybean exports unchanged. But that could change with China back in the U.S. market, after being absent at this time in 2025.
“If China would come to fruition and they would start buying above 15, 16 million metric tons and the assumption is maybe they will get to that 25, that could pull down the balance sheet a little bit more snug,” McCormick says.
Wheat Remains Neutral
The August WASDE was neutral for wheat. U.S. ending stocks dropped just 5 million bushels to 717 million. Global wheat stocks were raised nearly a half million metric tons to 273.3 million.
