The bare-bones numbers tell a startling tale. The steady exodus of farmers from U.S. agriculture.
“Stay in or get out while there is something left?” asks producer Kenneth Graves. “It’s now a money pit, and it shouldn’t be that way.”
“There are plenty of guys that barely survived this year, but things could be even worse this same time next year. That’s plain talk. I don’t want guys trapped in a repeat scenario, but we’re on a one-way street. I don’t want to just go along and pretend.”
Let no scab form, he insists. “Don’t put your head in the sand. Look at what’s happening and deal with it.”
The past decade of ag statistics and present rut, Graves contends, indicate a tough row to hoe: Age, acres, expenses, commodities, carryover, bankruptcies, and much more. “I’d love to be wrong, but I don’t see crop prices going up or inputs going down. Better have a plan and a sense of urgency.”
Crazy High
Chairman of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association, Graves, 71, says rice is a barometer for the overall row crop industry.
“Back in August of 2025, we started hearing serious talk from bankers that maybe 30 to 40 percent of their farmers might not be in agriculture in 2026. Just the possibility is incredible and tells you how serious things are. I started looking at the ag census and the rice statistics, just from the past 15 years, and they are flat-out scary.”
“You don’t have to be an economist to see we are motoring toward almost unimaginable levels of consolidation. Since 2012, total acreage hasn’t dropped drastically, but the number of guys selling out or walking away from farming is crazy high.”
In 2012, across the U.S., 5,591 rice farms (mainly in Arkansas, California, Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, and Mississippi) operated on 2,693,759 acres. By 2022, the numbers downshifted to 3,824 rice farms and 2,279,958 total acres. “That’s a major change in the amount of individual farms, but the acreage is very similar.”
Specifically, by state from 2012 to 2022, Arkansas dropped from 2,345 rice farms and 1,285,381 acres to 1,607 and 1,125,866. California: 1,392 rice farms and 561,968 acres to 724 and 738,068. Louisiana: 822 rice farms and 395,063 acres to 736 and 435,266. Missouri: 386 rice farms and 174,559 acres to 248 and 152,285. Texas: 364 rice farms and 134,189 acres to 289 and 193,438. Mississippi: 259 rice farms and 129,405 acres to 188 and 88,106.
“Consolidation on rice farms is where we’re at with all row crops. Ask yourself where it stops and what that means for national food security. And those are questions we better all be asking.”
Riding shotgun with consolidation issues, Graves points to demographics: farmer age. The average age of a U.S. grower is 58, and 40% of growers are over 65 years old.
“Do the math. A bunch of older guys naturally are fixing to get out. Where are those acres going? With the way things stand, that’s a pretty uncomfortable question.”
Nobody Left
Bitter irony: The highest yields in world history don’t equate to gain.
“I hope a market comes in and a big buyer starts grabbing everything up a storm. Hope and reality are two different things,” Graves emphasizes. “Right now, with these inputs and commodity prices, even a record crop can come short on profit.”
He points to a hanging question: What to do?
First, he recommends an acreage cut for rice growers. (Early estimates suggest a major rice reduction in Arkansas acreage and nationwide acreage.)
“I admit this is a self-help quick fix, but it’d be a start to the supply and demand issue. There are guys on zero grade that can’t switch to another crop, but if you can, to me it’s a must to try and right the ship.”
“In 2025, there were 1.25 million acres planted in Arkansas and the crop was a little under the state record yield. Meanwhile, we still had 9-10 million bushels carryover from the 2024 crop. So, the price is not going to be very good this year again. I believe we need to take out significant rice acres and replace those with whatever loses the least amount of money on that particular piece of ground.”
Second, Graves insists on new blood in the rows. “I don’t claim to have the answers, but I know that as an industry, we’ve got to work harder than ever to make this an issue that wakes up politicians. It’s got to be made easier for guys to get in—and I’m talking about young guys without deep pockets or family connections.”
The raw numbers paint an accurate picture, he says. “I’m not a dinosaur, because these are legitimate concerns for farmers today and the next generation. No, I don’t have instant solutions, but I’m saying what people are thinking.”
“We have a national ag census every five years,” Graves adds. “The next one is due in 2027. Who genuinely believes those numbers won’t be ugly? How much more consolidation until there’s basically nobody left?”
For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:
When Conservation Backfires: Landowner Defeats Feds in Mindboggling Private Property Case
Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told
How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer
Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust
Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing
