With 30 tax provisions set to expire at the end of 2025, the tax liabilities for family farms could increase at a time America’s farm families can ill afford any additional hits to the budget. Uncertainty surrounds the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA)–especially as a new administration is in route to the White House.
“The cost of the TCJA is significantly higher than was originally estimated in 2017. The newest estimate we’ve seen is that a full extension of the TCJA is going to cost $7.75 trillion through 2035,” says Pinion’s Beth Swanson. “With the budget reconciliation process and the expected cost, we’re worried that Congress is going to have to pick and choose which provisions of the TCJA are going to get extended next.”
According to research from USDA ERS, the impact of these expiring federal income tax provisions would increase tax liabilities for farm households by almost 9 billion. That’s a $2,200, or 12%, average increase per farm.
Broken down by farm size, that looks like:
- Low sales farms: Tax increase of about $700
- Moderate sales farms: Tax increase of about $2,300
- Very large farms: Tax increase of nearly $28,000
“Interestingly, in percentage terms, moderate sales farms are expected to have the greatest increase in tax liabilities at about 16%,” says Tia McDonald, USDA ERS. “They’re in an in-between area where they’re not quite getting some of the exemptions that higher income folks can take advantage of like bonus depreciation and even 179.
Farm CPA and Top Producer columnist Paul Neiffer adds, “Another part of it is the percentage increase of going from a 12% tax bracket to a 15% tax bracket. A lot of those moderate-income farmers also have 2, 3 or 4 kids that, under the current rules, qualify for the $2,000 tax credit, which is going to drop down to a $1,000 tax credit.”
As far as which provisions are the most important for farmers and ranchers, McDonald says the biggest impact will come from be provisions providing reduced individual income tax rates, an increased standard deduction, a cap on state and local tax deductions, and the elimination of the personal exemption, which would create an increase in total tax liability of $4.5 billion for all farm households.
“The reason for that is that it touches almost every farm household. So, the reach is quite broad,” she explains.
The Qualified Business Income Deduction
The second most important provision set to expire that McDonald lists is the qualified business income deduction, which provides farm households with positive business income a deduction equal to 20% of their qualified business income.
“Approximately 40% of low sales farms to almost 80% of very large farms receive that qualified business income deduction,” McDonald says.
Referring to the results of a recent survey, Kent Bacus of National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) says even though this deduction hasn’t been around long, it’s been valuable to producers.
“As far as the 199A qualified business income deduction, with that being relatively new, we still had over half of the [1,200] respondents who have used it, and they’ve considered a very important tool,” Bacus says. “I think that’s something that we want to see continue in the next package.”
Child Tax Credit and Bonus Depreciation
McDonald says additional provisions, such as the child tax credit, the estate tax exemption, alternative minimum tax provisions and bonus depreciation, will likely have less of an impact on tax liabilities overall.
“Those are really targeted toward higher income farm households, so they don’t have quite the reach,” she explains.
Swanson, however, says the loss of bonus depreciation would still be notable for many.
“For bonus depreciation, sunsetting is a concern – especially because Section 179 isn’t really a one-for-one trade. With commodities that are heavier on equipment, producers tend to use bonus depreciation year after year,” Swanson says. “It’s more than just a timing difference. The loss of bonus depreciation will be a significant annual effect to many of the farmers that we work with [at Pinion].”
This is echoed by the results of NCBA’s survey as well.
“When you look at Section 179 and bonus depreciation, one of the key things we ask is, ‘If these tools weren’t available, how would that impact you?’,” Bacus says. “What we found is without access to these tools, about 25% to 30% of the respondents would have had to pay an additional $20,000 in taxes.”
The Timeline
Once the new administration is in place, Bacus believes we can expect Congress to act quickly.
“We have new leadership in the Senate and new leadership in the administration. They’re going to try to prioritize a couple of key things that will be important to the new administration, and a couple of those are going to be border security and taxes.” Bacus explains. “We’re looking for a lot of movement in those first 100 days.”
But Swanson says it’s possible that movement may not be focused on extending these provisions in the beginning.
“We are worried about President-elect Trump’s varied tax commitments and the distraction those might provide to getting the TCJA extended,” Swanson says. “I think the best thing we can do is wait and see. We will hope that the legislative process goes fairly quickly and Congress is able to avoid all of those distractions that may prevent us from getting TCJA expansion done.
Once these provisions are in focus, Bacus believes there are a few avenues it could take.
“With those tight margins in the House and the Senate, you are going to have to have some kind of bipartisan package that comes together. The big question is, are they going to update the tax code? Are they just going to extend it? Or will we potentially see a default if all these efforts fail,” Bacus says. “I think it’s unlikely that the efforts have failed, but the aggressive timeline that’s been proposed is always subject to the minutia and the swamp nature of Washington. That tends to slow things down.”
Neiffer expects an extension with a few key changes.
“I don’t think we’re going to see a permanent TCJA,” Neiffer says. “We’re going to see another three to five or five to seven years. Some of the provisions may become permanent and some will disappear. And you’re going to see some new ones come into effect.”
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