The January USDA reports are the biggest of the season with final crop production for the previous year, world supply and demand estimates, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings for the new season. Average trade guesses ahead of Monday indicated only minor adjustments to the annual reports that are historically a huge market mover.
This year, all eyes were on final yields and production, specifically corn, and USDA provided several bearish surprises.
Corn Crop Still Big
USDA didn’t back off its big corn crop forecast, putting its final 2025 production at 17 billion bushels. The agency raised its final yield estimates from November to 186.5 bu. per acre. (Ahead of the report, the trade was expecting a 2 bu. cut to 184 bu. per acre.) The gains also include raising acreage 4.5 million above the June survey, which analysts say is unprecedented. The final harvest area is now estimated at 91.25 million acres.
The increase in production also lifted U.S. ending stocks to 2.227 billion bushels. That’s up from 2.029 in December 2025 and well above traded estimates. Corn futures markets sank double digits immediately following the release.
“That’s just a massive crop, 186.5 for yield, says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net. “I take issue with the higher corn yield considering the heavy disease pressure in parts of the Corn Belt.
A lot of people, of course, with recency bias and all the issues felt like [USDA] could take this yield down a fair amount. I would say it was definitely a shock for most people.”
USDA raised total corn usage to a record 16.4 billion bushels.
“Exports have been nothing short of incredible so far. As far as sales are concerned, we’ve actually had good shipments, but USDA left exports at 3.2, and then actually took up feed and residual usage,” Bennett adds.
Soybean Numbers Remain Steady
On the soybean side of the aisle, USDA left yields basically unchanged from the November report at an estimated 53 bu. per acre. However it did raise overall production to 4.262 billion bushels.
Ahead of the report, the average trade guess lowered yield by 0.3 bu. to 52.7 bu. per acre. Jerry Gulke thought President Trump’s goal of keeping food prices low and the fact USDA is providing Farmer Bridge Assistance might dictate a bearish slant.
Ending stocks are beginning the new year at 350 million bushels. That’s higher than December’s estimates based on smaller expected exports. The increase in production and lack of exports drove futures lower following the report.
“Essentially there were minor changes [for soybeans] other than exports, which went down 60 million bushels,” Bennett explains. “You’ve got to assume it’s because USDA took that Brazil crop up to 178. It’s something I think they lagged in doing. However, a 350 million bushels soybean carryout is still tight and with exports sales running 30% behind last year, it may be a gift for now.”
Winter Wheat Seedings Down
Farmers found a reason to plant more winter wheat than previously expected at 32.99 million acres. That’s well below last year’s crop planted on 33.15 million acres but larger than the trade had anticipated. Hard red winter wheat was nearly steady with last year at 23.50 million acres. Soft red winter wheat also near a year ago at 6.14 million acres while white winter wheat plantings fell to 3.36 million acres.
Click here to hear how Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, breaks down the price action following the report.
