A solid game plan addressing key fundamentals could be the most powerful risk-management tool farmers have going into the 2026 season, according to Randy Dowdy and David Hula. Here are four they encourage farmers to review and work on this winter:
Fuel The Crop Adequately
Hula stresses that even in low-margin years, you can’t cut corners on fundamental crop needs. He emphasizes using soil tests to manage N, P and K, looking at soil pH and applying lime where needed.
“When you think about where you’re spending dollars, you can’t waiver from that,” he says. “We have to cover the basics… there’s nothing that’s sexy about farming right now, [everyone’s] just trying to survive.”
Why Your Planter Is the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Yield
Randy Dowdy says the planter represents the “lowest hanging fruit” for yield improvement on 90% of U.S. farms.
“The planter is just not performing at the levels to reach the maximum potential that most farmers need to support and service debt,” Dowdy says.
He encourages growers to spend time in the shop, ensuring that every row unit is capable of delivering “picket fence” seed placement and performance. For Dowdy, this means every seed is placed at a consistent depth and spacing, emerging within a tight window of 10 to 12 Growing Degree Units (GDUs) of one another
“Does every seed have the same standard deviation between them, the placement from one seed to the next? Are they all singulated, and are they all coming up at the same time? If that’s not happening, that’s a big deal,” Dowdy says.
Consider Seed Size Along With Good Genetics
While every farmer is tuned into genetics, Dowdy and Hula say they can benefit from taking seed size into consideration, too.
One of the questions Hula says he often gets is, “What’s the best seed size to plant?”
After years of analyzing small rounds versus large flats, his philosophy has evolved into a practical rule of thumb.
“My answer now is simple: whatever your planter plants the best, that’s the seed you want to plant,” he says.
But that only works if you’ve done your homework on the meters—cleaning them, replacing worn parts, and calibrating them with actual seed to determine the vacuum and speed settings. Taking these steps can eliminate guesswork that leads to skips and doubles.
Generally, Dowdy observes that “Deere likes rounds, Precision likes flats.”
Both Dowdy and Hula caution against the temptation of buying plateless (mixed-size) seed just because it carries a lower price tag. Their take: if you use it, run side‑by‑side strips with good, graded seed so you can see the real yield cost.
“I’d really challenge [anyone using plateless seed] to plant some graded seed next to it… just so you could know what it’s costing you. It’s costing you money,” says Hula.
Take Only Calculated Risks, ‘Miss Small’
Dowdy says this is the year to “control the controllables” and stick with practices you know consistently pay. He warns that farmers can’t afford big mistakes in this economy. While he’s not afraid of trying new practices, he is afraid of not being profitable and not being able to service debt, so due diligence and ROI have to come first.
“If we’re going to have a fail, we don’t need to fail in a big way. We need to miss small in an economy like this,” Dowdy says. “I’ll put my big toe in the water, but it won’t be my whole foot and a bunch of acres.”
A Checklist For Reference This Winter
Here are additional highlights of recommendations Dowdy and Hula listed during their most recent Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast. These are not all-inclusive, but rather a starting point for farmers preparing for spring:
1. Soil and Fertility Basics
- Lime and pH: Check pH by zone or grid. Apply lime only where pH is low. Avoid wasting inputs on ground at 6.5 or higher.
- Manganese Alert: Watch for potential deficiencies in high pH spots (above 6.8).
- P and K Strategy: Use recent soil tests to determine if Phosphorus can be reduced. Keep Potash a priority where base saturation justifies the spend.
2. The Planter Bar and Row Units
- Parallel Arms: Inspect for “oblong” wear or side play. Replace any arms that aren’t tight.
- Double-Disc Openers: Use a jig to check run-out. Only use blades that meet tight tolerances for a clean V-trench.
- Gauge Wheels: Lift by hand. If they feel loose or drop instantly, adjust or replace the bushings and arms.
- Alignment: Use a tape measure to verify every row is exactly on target (e.g., 30 inches). Ensure the toolbar is perfectly level front-to-back at operating height.
3. Seed Trench and Closing System
- Centering: Run the planter across concrete. Ensure closing wheel marks are perfectly centered over the seed path.
- Row Cleaners: Adjust “trash whippers” to move residue without gouging a deep furrow that could lead to erosion or crusting.
4. Seed and Meter Calibration
- Match Seed to Meter: Generally, John Deere/ExactEmerge systems prefer rounds, while Precision Planting systems prefer flats.
- The Meter Test: Replace worn belts and brushes. Calibrate meters annually on a test stand using your actual seed to determine the exact vacuum and speed settings.
- The “Plateless” Warning: Avoid the temptation of cheap, mixed-size seed. If you use it, run a side-by-side strip against graded seed to measure the true cost of lost bushels.
5. Management Mindset
- Miss Small: This is the year for calculated risks. Put your “big toe” in the water with new tech, but don’t commit the whole farm until you see a proven ROI on your own soil.
- Check Strips: Always leave a clean, untreated check strip when trying new products for evaluation.
Hear the latest Breaking Barriers With R&D to learn more about Hula and Dowdy’s recommendations at Farm Journal TV and the YouTube link below.
