Just as the temperatures top triple digits in places across the Midwest this week, the 2023 Pro Farmer Crop Tour is taking off. Iowa and Illinois will be closely watched as scouts set out on the annual tour this week.

Each year, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour happens the third week of August. It's one of the largest and longest-running crop tours in the U.S.

“I think the biggest question marks heading into tour are in Illinois and Iowa, and because the eastern tour covers Illinois and the eastern half of Iowa, the two biggest corn- and soybean-producing states, I think the eastern leg probably has more question marks this year,” says Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer.

Fact-Finding Mission

Grete leads the eastern leg of the tour. He says the ultimate goal of crop tour is to span across seven states and measure yield potential for both corn and soybeans.

“It's the same every year. We go into it with no preconceived notions, in terms of what we will expect to find,” says Grete. “It’s a fact-finding mission. At the end of the week, we'll have a really good representative sample across the seven Corn Belt states that cover roughly 1,700 corn and 1,700 soybean samples. We turn those into basically one big cornfield across those seven states.”

Scouts will cover South Dakota and Ohio, then wade through fields in Indiana and Nebraska, with the tour crossing into Illinois and Iowa, and wrapping up in Minnesota. 

“We don't cover all areas across each state. Iowa is the only state that we cover entirely. We're in all 99 counties there, but the other six states, we talk to producers that we know around those areas, and we reach out to other sources within the industry to get a good representative sample of those areas outside of where we sample,” Grete explains.

Drought Covers Iowa 

There’s no doubt about it, there are portions across Iowa, especially northeast and southeast Iowa, that are extremely dry.

“Right now, to try to pinpoint a yield is nearly impossible,” says Troy Deutmeyer, an agronomist with Pioneer who’s located in northeast Iowa. “And part of that reason is we haven't seen a drought of this intensity in so long.”

He says the main theme this year is just how variable this crop could be.

“We're going to have some guys with the best crop they've ever raised and eight miles down the road, it might be the worst one since 1988 or 2012,” he says.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor paints the picture, showing nearly 99% of Iowa is faced with dry and drought conditions. Even with rains in late July, 3% of the state is still in extreme drought.

“Probably some of the driest areas are probably around that Cedar Rapids-Iowa City area and working down towards southeast Iowa," Deutmeyer says.

He says some of that region did catch rains in early August, but it’s still dry.

“Those are some of the areas that are really hurting with just 1 to 2 inches of rain since planting,” Deutmeyer says.

Corn Plants Still Lush and Green

Yet even in those drought-stricken fields, he says plants are still green.

“I tip my hat a lot to farmers improving their fertility management. The equipment's gotten better. And obviously, genetics can can do a lot more than what they used to," Deutmeyer says.

Another factor that helped were summer temperatures a shade below normal.

“The good part was with the super dry air and low humidity, we were allowed to really cool off at night,” says Deutmeyer. “So, it wasn't uncommon for us to get down into the upper 50s sometimes, and a lot of low 60s. That gave those plants a breather overnight, just like when we go into the air conditioning.”

The smoke from Canada also helped provide a layer from the heat, but it didn’t impact photosynthesis. In fact, Deutmeyer says Iowa was able to see what he describes as Nebraska sunlight, which produced quite a few stalks with two ears. He says most of those ears won’t be able to be counted for yield, but in some areas, they will.

The Potential Garden Spot in Iowa 

While Iowa farmers face dry conditions across much of the state, the garden spot in the state may be along I-35.

“They started catching rains in June, and they've kind of had them throughout the growing season,” says Deutmeyer. “Des Moines toward Mason City area, I think is probably sitting in overall good good shape. But even within that area, there are pockets that are extremely dry.”

Mother Nature Turns Up the Heat

Those cool temperatures are not in store for Crop Tour scouts this week. With extreme heat, combined with high humidity, this will be one of the hottest Crop Tours scouts have ever endured. That may draw even more attention to the tour this year, especially considering crop watchers are going to want to see how the crops hold up to the heat.

For Grete, it means scouts will be measuring a mature crop, which is something that plays into Pro Farmer’s favor when estimating yields.

“We're going to push this crop to maturity and we will be measuring more yield, actual yield and yield potential in a lot of these areas, and our our corn formula works better in years when it's a more mature crop than a less mature crop,” Grete explains.

There’s no question variability will be the headline during Crop Tour, but between advancements in genetics and producers propelling their production practices, it’s a question of how well this crop stood up to this year’s weather extremes.

“And with producers upping their game with management and the improvements in genetics, it's really hard to put a number on and we're probably just going have to wait till October to see how it turns out,” says Deutmeyer.

Crop Tour Results Each Night Vs. Final Pro Farmer Estimate 

Each night, Pro Farmer Crop Tour will release the daily findings, but at the end of the week, Pro Farmer will utilize the data and crop conditions they saw this week, as well as information from states they didn’t tour, to come up with their official Pro Farmer estimates.

Grete says that’s also where historical data plays a key role.

“The other thing is we know how much historically we miss each state by and there are reasons we miss states. Like in Minnesota, for example, we tour the southern tier of counties, and that's the highest producing area in that state. So, we know we're going to be high. But the important thing is we know how much, and that all comes into play at the end of the week when Pro Farmer releases our crop estimates on Friday at 1:30 CT,” says Grete.

While scouts search fields during the day, nightly meetings will give farmers the unique opportunity to hear those results firsthand. Below is a schedule of the nightly meetings. You can attend by registering here:  Click here to register.

2023 IN-PERSON CROP TOUR MEETINGS

WESTERN TOUR
Grand Island, Neb.
Monday, Aug. 21
Riverside Golf Club  | 2820 Riverside Drive  |  Grand Island, NE 68801
 
Nebraska City, Neb.
Tuesday, Aug. 22
Lied Lodge and Conference Center  |  2700 Sylvan Road  |  Nebraska City, NE 68410
 
Spencer, Iowa
Wednesday, Aug. 23
Clay County Fair and Events Center  |  800 West 18th Street  | Spencer, IA 51301

EASTERN TOUR
Noblesville, Ind.
Monday, Aug. 21
Embassy Suites Noblesville  |  13700 Conference Center Drive S.  |  Noblesville, IN 46060
 
Bloomington, Ill.
Tuesday, Aug. 22  
DoubleTree by Hilton  |  10 Brickyard Drive  |  Bloomington, IL 61701
 
Iowa City, Iowa
Wednesday, Aug. 23  
Hyatt Regency Coralville  |  300 East 9th Street  |  Coralville, IA 52241

FINALE
Rochester, Minn.
Thursday, Aug. 24
Mayo Civic Center  |  30 Civic Center Drive SE  |  Rochester, MN 55902

Click here to register.