All eyes are on just how big of a crop U.S. farmers will produce this year. USDA’s next chance to update its will yield forecast is in the August WASDE report set to be released Monday, August 12, and the assumption is USDA will revise its 2024 yield forecast higher.
Crop conditions remain strong, and analysts think the U.S. could be sitting on a record crop for both corn and soybeans. In the July report, USDA left yield for corn and soybeans unchanged, which wasn’t a surprise. USDA’s current yield forecast is:
- 181 bu. per acre yield for corn with corn production forecast at 15.1 billion bushels.
- Soybean yield pegged at 52 bu. per acre and production at 4.4 billion bushels.
Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net says he expects USDA to adjust its yield forecast higher on Monday
“Whenever you look at the historic data here in August, they always make some sort of a change,” says Bennett. “You’ve got to ask yourself which direction might it be? Clearly, the good to excellent ratings would certainly lend credence to both corn and beans moving a little bit higher.”
Bennett points out the U.S. Drought Monitor paints a scenario of minimal drought stress, which supports the idea that USDA will need to adjust yield on Monday.
“I understand that parts of, Kansas and parts of Ohio have certainly had a little bit dryer bias than everyone else. But in the heart of the Corn Belt, specifically the “I States,” and into Nebraska, we don’t have much in the way of drought. So I’ve got to think that yield is going to go up.”
AgMarket.net came out with its own yield forecast hosing a 183.2 bu. per acre yield on corn and 5.27 bu. per acre on soybeans.
“Big Crops Only Get Bigger”
The saying is “big crops only get bigger,” and with cooler temperatures in the Midwest again this week, it’s good grain fill weather.
So, are the U.S. corn and soybean crops currently getting larger? Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Petrson Group, says “yes.”
“I feel like we’re not hearing producers complain about how things are negative, and they’re pretty quiet, but thankful for how things are actually looking positive,” says Blohm. “So I do feel that on Monday’s USDA report, we likely see the USDA raise the yield. Now, the question is, do they just do a baby step to acknowledge the good crop out there, or are they going to do something larger?”
Blohm says in Monday’s report, USDA will use satellite imagery and farmer survey data to compile their yield forecast. She says based on those two tools, the trade is also expecting USDA to bump up its yield forecast.
“But the question will be if there’s any adjustment to harvested acres, because we are going to be able to incorporate the FSA and RMA numbers into this report. And that might be something that provides us some curiosity for the market or a surprise to the marketplace,” says Blohm. “But the bottom line is, what do all the adjustments do to ending stocks? And we still have a 2-billion-bushel carryout for corn and over 400 million bushels on the beans. It’s a big crop and those are really, really, really big supply numbers.”
Both Blohm and Bennett thinks USDA is currently trading around a 181.5 bu. per acre to 182 bu. per acre yield on corn and a 52.5 bu. per acre yield on soybeans.
“We’ve seen some awfully big numbers come out of here, but to me, the trade has certainly beat us up pretty good. It. Could there be more downside? Yes, I believe that there could, if you would really raise a bigger crop than what we’ve ever seen,” says Bennett. “I mean, a 181 bu. pr acre yield, most people said we couldn’t do that because the highest we’ve raised was a why of 178 bu. per acre. So, if you actually do beat that by three, four, five or six bushels, I fully expect that you could move lower yet.”
Could USDA provide some surprises with its adjustment to acreage? As Blohm mentioned, USDA set the stage by providing a notice that said it would incorporate new data. Blohm and Bennett discuss the possible changes in the video below.
