Pro Farmer Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has left his corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged this week, but has a neutral to lower bias going forward and says estimates could be lowered next week if the expanding dome of hot air sets up over the central U.S. this week as expected.
“I debated lowering the corn yield this week or not, but I decided to wait and see of the wetter forecast for later this week verifies. If the rainfall totals come in less than advertised or if they don’t fall in the areas needed the most, I will probably lower my corn yield next week,” he says, noting that most of this week’s crop condition decline was in the western Corn Belt.
Cordonnier notes the longer the current weather pattern holds, the greater the possibility of a disappointing corn yield. “The bottom line is that I feel there is a greater downside risk for the corn crop than upside potential,” he adds.
Meanwhile, soybean conditions declined for the fourth week in a row. Cordonnier notes the crop has problems on both ends of the Corn Belt. “It is too dry in the western Corn Belt while it is too wet in the eastern Corn Belt,” he says. “Not only are the soybeans experiencing problems in the western Corn Belt due to dry weather, they are also experiencing problems in the eastern Corn Belt due to too much water. Numerous reports out of Indiana and Ohio indicate that the soybeans have been significantly impacted by the saturated conditions. In addition to some acres being lost due to ponding, a lot of the soybeans are shorter than normal, yellow, stunted, and growing very slowly due to a lack of oxygen in the saturated root zone.”
| Cordonnier 2017 Production | Harvested acreage | Yield | Production |
million acres | bu. per acre | billion bu. | |
| Corn | 83.4 | 165.0 | 13.76 |
| Soybeans | 88.7 | 47.5 | 4.21 |
Specifically, Cordonnier outlines the following areas of concern for the U.S. crops:
- The most recent Drought Monitor showed expanding dryness in Iowa and Nebraska in addition to the existing concerns in South Dakota and North Dakota. The USDA reported last week that 9% of the U.S. corn and soybean areas were experiencing drought conditions.
- Dryness in central Illinois also continues to be a concern. Approximately 7-10 counties in central Illinois from about Quincy to Champaign/Urbana could definitely use additional moisture.
- Temperatures this week are expected to be above normal in the western Corn Belt, which will increase the corn’s water demand just as much of the corn enters into pollination.
In contrast to the dryness in the western Corn Belt, there continues to be too much rain in some of the eastern states such as Indiana and Ohio. The wetness in the eastern Corn Belt has resulted in uneven development especially for the soybeans.
