USDA’s first survey-based acreage report of the year confirmed one thing: U.S. farmers plan to plant considerably morn corn acres than they did in 2024. But even with corn acres coming in above 95 million, and nearly 1 million acres more than what the trade anticipated, the corn market seemed unfazed by the news.
USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report estimates U.S. farmers will plant:
- 95.3 million acres of corn, up 5% from 2024
- 83.5 million acres of soybeans, down 4% from last year
- 45.4 million acres of wheat, down 2% from 2024
- 9.87 million acres of cotton in 2025, down 12%.
Total corn and soybean acres in the March report equal 178.8 million, which is up 1.1 million from a year ago.
The corn acreage came in above the average trade guess, which was 94.361 million, but the USDA survey results were below the soybean prereport estimates, which was 83.76 million acres. Why weren’t traders more surprised by USDA’s large acreage number for corn?
“I think it’s probably because there was also the expectation that no matter how high the number on corn plantings that it would be the smallest number of the year on corn plantings,” says Chip Flory, host of “AgriTalk” and Farm Journal’s economist. “So, the trade was leaning up on the corn number, but don’t rule out it having a negative impact by the end of the day.”
Ben Brown, an extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri , says even though 95.3 million is above the average trade guess, it’s not as high as what some expected.
“There have been whispers that managed money traders were anticipating a number in the upper 95s or even 96-million-acre range for corn,” says Brown. “Those whispers pushed new corn down 9 cents per bushel last week and new crop soybeans up 22 cents per bushel. If true, today’s planting intentions report would have been disappointing to them and trigger a reversal of last week’s movement. It is still a relatively large corn acreage number.”
According to USDA’s report, total corn acreage is expected to be up 5%, with some of the biggest increases coming in the South.
- Arkansas: Up 42%
- Mississippi: Up 41%
- Tennessee: Up 29%
“Iowa was the biggest amongst the I-States at over a half a million acres higher,” AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett told AgDay’s Michelle Rook. “That’s no surprise. As I’ve been in Iowa several times this winter. I’ve heard over and over that they’re going to be heavy corn growers have told me that personally that it just didn’t work for them to plant soybeans. Then, if you add up Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, you’re over 1.1 million acres of additional corn.”
Bennett says the entire Midwest is seeing higher corn acres in 2025, as well.
“I understand that profit margins are still raised or thin. It’s just that we all know that U.S. growers love to plant corn first of all, and second of all, with $10 cash beans for the bids for beans, t that was a big factor for a lot of these folks,” Bennett added in his interview with Rook.
Shift in Acreage and Potential Impact on Yield
If farmers want to search for something positive in USDA showing such a large number of acres being planted in corn this year, Flory says you don’t have to go far. And that’s the fact that some of the large acreage shifts are coming in the fringe acres, which could bring down the national average yield on corn.
“The movement of acres from cotton and spring wheat to corn should make it tough to get to the 181 bu. per acre for a national average corn yield that USDA currently has penciled in,” Flory says.
If you dig into the details of USDA’s acreage report, and look at where the acres went, the 2025 principal crops planted acreage number fell in the Plains, but corn acres actually increased in some of those states.
“We haven’t hit the USDA trend line yield the last seven years causing many to wonder if the trend has changed and drawing the ire of many producers, so, the 181 bu. per acre number is already under question,” says Brown. “However, where corn increases matters. Of states with an average yield over 181 bushels per acre, which is 14, 13 of them had an increase in corn acreage relative to 2024. One could thus then make the case- we have increase corn acreage in states with state wide yield averages better than 181 bu. per acre.”
Soybean Acres Slip
The pretrade estimates were wide for corn, ranging from above 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range was 82.5 million to 85.5 million. USDA’s actual report number came in at 83.5 million, which was only 1 million acres higher than the lowest trade estimate. So, why did the soybean market trend lower after the report? Flory says it’s the opposite of corn.
“There was an attitude that the bean number would be the biggest we see this year, so the trade was leaning down on the bean number,” Flory explains.
Biggest Surprises Out of USDA’s Reports
The fact that the March 31 reports included Prospective Plantings and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) means the markets have a lot of information to digest. But what are the biggest surprises?
Here’s Flory’s list:
- That the market surveys did a fantastic job of identifying the March 1 corn, soybean and wheat stocks. Wheat stocks are a touch heavy but not enough to make a difference.
- Also, USDA printed a cotton plantings number below 10 million. “I think that’s important, even if the market doesn’t — wow,” Flory says.
- Spring wheat at 10 million seedings is a bullish number.
For Brown, the biggest surprise wasn’t in acreage; it was the fact the March Grain Stocks report didn’t produce any shocks to the market.
“Maybe it’s adrenaline- but I was surprised the stocks report was as accurate as it was as it can be full of surprises especially for corn,” says Brown “However, corn came in spot on and the smallest surprise in the corn quarterly stocks since I started tracking in 2018/2019. Beans and wheat were also relatively small surprises.”
Brown says the total prospective acreage number wasn’t really a surprise, but he does question if U.S. farmers will hit that total this year.
“I just don’t know if producers will break their necks to plant everything this year,” says Brown.
Brown also points out sorghum was able to increase acreage in 2025 vs 2024 by 265,000 acres.
“Sorghum prices have been relatively weak compared to corn- but it is dry in Kansas and that could incentivize people to plant more of crops that do better in dry conditions,” says Brown.
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