Triple-digit heat indices swept across the Midwest and Plains late last week and into the weekend, and the damage is already showing up in the numbers. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report released Monday showed the steepest week-over-week decline in corn good to excellent condition ratings for this point in the growing season in nearly 20 years, catching even the most bearish analyst estimates off guard.
USDA now rates the corn crop at 63% good to excellent, 25% fair, and 12% very poor to poor. The four-point drop in the good-to-excellent category from the previous week marks the largest single-week decline of the year, and while a decline in condition ratings was expected, the drop was larger than what the trade expected leading into Monday’s report.
The last time condition ratings dropped at least 4 points at this point in the year was in 2007. Other notable years with larger ratings declines for this time of year include:
- 2007: 5-point drop
- 1999: 7-point decline
- 1993: 4-point decline
- 1991: 5-point decline
- 1987: 8-point decline
However, if you calculate the standard index using all five categories in the report, this week’s decline marks the largest since 1999.
The Numbers Behind the Drop
It wasn’t just the heat, but also the lack of moisture that aided in the weekly decline. While most states posted losses in ratings a handful of states, including Missouri, Tennessee and North Carolina, actually eked out minor gains of less than half a point each.
Some of the sharpest pain, though, is showing up in the western Corn Belt and Plains.
- Colorado and North Carolina are both carrying poor-to-very-poor readings near 41%.
- South Dakota sits at 23% poor to very poor, followed by North Dakota at 18%
- Kansas at 17%
- Illinois is showing 13% of its crop in poor-to-very-poor condition
Basse: Yield Estimates Already Trimmed, More Cuts Possible
Dan Basse, , president and founder of AgResource Company, says the change is impacting his yield estimate.
“If we look at central U.S. soil moisture, July was a very warm and dry month, and so it was not the kind of month that the corn crop wanted,” Basse says. “We do have some areas of problems.”
Asked whether the stress is already showing up in AgResource’s yield models, Basse confirmed the firm has trimmed its numbers, though not dramatically, yet.
AgResource currently pegs the corn yield at 181 bu. per acre and soybeans at 52.5 bu. per acre, which is down two bushels and a half-bushel per acre, respectively, from prior estimates.
“It’s not a big drop, but if we don’t get rain and the soil moisture continues to decline, those numbers will still come down even more,” Basse explains.
Looking ahead to the next USDA report, Basse said he expects U.S. corn good-to-excellent ratings to fall further, potentially into the 60% range nationally.
He points to the same state-level stress spots highlighted in this week’s data, including Colorado and North Carolina near 41% poor to very poor, South Dakota at 23%, North Dakota at 18%, and Kansas at 17%, as areas to watch.
On Illinois, Basse noted the 13% poor-to-very-poor reading there stems less from dryness and more from the flooding the state saw back in June
