As Dry Weather Takes a Toll On Crops, It's a Year Test Weights and Seed Size Could Now Eat Into Yields
U.S. Farm Report 09/16/23 - Roundtable 1
USDA cut its yield projection in the latest crop production report released earlier this week. USDA’s now thinks the national corn yield will hit 173.8 bu. per acre. The soybean yield is forecast at 50.1 bu. per acre.
Even with cuts in the September report, Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing thinks more cuts could be in store for future reports.
“I certainly do think more cuts are yet to come. I think the markets starting to maybe sense that a little bit as well,” says Nellinger. “Now it's too early on bean harvest to really get a sense on that.”
Nellinger says considering how dry it’s been in both August and so far in September, along with the heat last month, he thinks crop yields are falling.
”I think that that dryness is going to take the top end off, and producers are also saying, ‘Hey, my corn crop, it's not just drying down rapidly, it's dying.’ And that's never good for top end yield. So, I think that leaves a room open for the USDA to continue to cut yields on upcoming reports,” says Nellinger.
The Crop is Dying Down
If the crop is truly dying down, is that already factored into USDA’s forecast? Dan Basse of AgResource Company says it does come into play with how USDA takes yield and crop samples.
“USDA actually pulls ears and pulls pods, they'll pull more ears and more pods for the October report, but they will then mechanically drive them down,” says Basse. “So we get a sense of what test weight is doing. This will be a year. because of what Chip has just said, that test weights will be off significantly in terms of corn and then soybean seed size, it will be down, which is 33% of yield. So, to that point, I think as you go forward to October, November, we are looking for yields to come off just a little bit from what USDA indicated on Tuesday.
Yield Forecasts
An October report could be critical, as analysts agree if USDA does release one, more yield cuts are likely.
"Blue Reef Agri-Marketing does our own producer survey, and we took our first crack at it just a week ago,” says Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing. “That survey came in with a corn yield right around 169 bu. per acre.”
Basse says AgResource Company currently estimates corn at 171 bu. per acre and soybeans at 49 bu. per acre
However, an October report from USDA isn’t guaranteed. Why? Dan Basse explains here.
