A question from Anthony Pasket in Anderson, Texas about the cotton industry
“The Cotton Industry has experienced great change in the United States over the years, I have been connected to the Cotton Harvesting end of it. Do you think Cotton will continue to be grown in the United States or will it fade away in 20 or 50 years and only be grown outside the U.S.?”
I’ve wondered about this industry myself, even though this isn’t cotton country. I think the answer will depend on three main factors: competition, climate, and clothing.
While we are the largest global exporter of cotton, we lag behind India and China in production. Meanwhile an amazing 93% of the 2021 crop was exported. We grow cotton – we don’t use it. Like all commodities, cotton competitors are benefiting from the extremely strong dollar, which makes our cotton more expensive compared to other countries.
Competition also includes other crops, especially in the Mid-South. Strong soybean and to a lesser extent corn and wheat prices can push growers to those crops. Weed control is adding to the cotton production problem.
Climate is becoming a larger and larger factor, both due to weather conditions and water needs. I think we can anticipate cotton acreage to continue to drop, as well as Oklahoma. Texas is suffering a deep drought this year as well but is not included in the decades-long megadrought area. Climate also is challenging global competitors like India, so shifts in production areas are difficult to predict.
These are familiar problems for commodity producers. But cotton also has a huge competition problem with a unique competitor: oil. Oil is used to produce polyester, and polyester fiber has become the dominant clothing fabric. It is very hard to by clothing without some polyester in it. Even more advanced manufacturing processes turn out polyester for fake fur to silky dresses.
The biggest driver has been stretchy clothing both for comfort and looks. Additionally, Congress seems willing to subsidize the small number of cotton growers extravagantly.
Mix these all together and the best I can predict I doubt cotton will be a growth industry in the U.S. future.
