The 2024 crop was big but not quite as large as USDA originally forecast last fall. In its annual crop production report, the agency released its final tally for 2024.
USDA says the 2024 corn crop totaled 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from the 2023 estimate, with a record-high average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre and ending stocks nearly 200 million bushels lower than its December forecast. That’s also well off USDA’s high of 183.8 bushels per acre from October and just slightly above the 2023 average of 177.3.
“This report was more friendly than just about anybody had expected,” said Joe Vaclavik, the founder and president of Standard Grain. “They did adjust harvest acreage a little bit, but the end result was a crop size that was 276 million bushels smaller than what they had previously reported. This is a great thing for prices and it’s a great thing for farmers.”
Vaclavik lamented the timing during an interview with Michelle Rook for U.S. Farm Report. He said better numbers a couple of months ago could have helped farmers make decisions during harvest about sales and storage. Corn futures rose following the report and analysts like Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net say that’s likely to impact sales in the coming months.
“What’s it going to take to get that farmer to sell that next chunk of corn,” asks McCormick. “Fiscally, farmers are definitely feeling the pinch, and this is going to make for a little bit brighter picture. One thing to keep an eye on, though, new crop corn [futures] is not rising as fast as the old crop today.”
The U.S. soybean crop is a different story in terms of production direction. USDA officially puts 2024 production at 4.37 billion bushels with a per acre average of 50.7. Both numbers are higher than last year and above USDA’s previous October per acre yield estimate of 53.1 bushels per acre.
“The report was a little bit friendlier for old crop, but the world situation is still an anchor on the whole complex,” Vaclavik says. “You’ve got these big South American crops expected and big, healthy global balance sheets for soybeans. Whereas in corn, things are tightening up a little bit.”
The soybean futures market fought its way back above the psychologically significant $10 per bushel mark following the report release.
“With a very substantial crop, harvest underway in Brazil and selling likely to be aggressive with the Brazilian real as weak as it is, it’s hard for me to see the U.S. exceeding $11 and even then, that might be a stretch,” said Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors.
Looking back to the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, USDA’s numbers are right on par with the team’s estimates and margin of error. Pro Farmer put its estimates following a weeklong survey of fields in August at 14.97 billion bushels for corn on an average of 181.1 bushels per acre with a margin of error of +/- 1%. At minus 1%, the Pro Farmer estimate matches USDA final production numbers of 179.3.
“USDA’s final corn production estimate came in just 112 million bushels below where Pro Farmer pegged the crop in the third week of August following Crop Tour,” said Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer. “We realized the corn crop wouldn’t be as big as USDA estimated as of Aug. 1, though production ended up falling slightly more than we anticipated.”
On the soybean side, Pro Farmer was a little more optimistic, calling for 4.74 billion bushels of soybeans +/- 2% with an average yield of 54.9 bushels to the acre.
“We overestimated the soybean crop following Crop Tour,” Grete added. “At that time, the soybean crop had faced very few weather hurdles and was heavily podded. Unfortunately, a hot and dry finish robbed bushels before harvest.”
Wheat futures ended about even following USDA’s final production tally and global outlook. It says 2024 production totaled 1.97 billion bushels on a 51.2 bushel per acre average. The wheat ending stocks of 798 million bushels were adjusted just slightly higher.
Also released in a flurry of final reports is the total acres seeded to winter wheat for the 2024/2025 crop year. This season USDA says 34.1 million acres are planted. That’s up 2% from a year ago. Crop ratings in Kansas, the nation’s largest winter wheat producer, for November, stood at 55% good to excellent. In early January good to excellent only described 47% of the state. That said, much of the winter wheat areas have seen moisture in the last couple of weeks in the form of snow, ice or rain.
Looking globally, USDA is calling for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade and higher ending stocks. The agency expects exports from Russia to fall by 1 million tons while India is dealing with record prices amid dwindling supplies and robust demand.
South American Production
While USDA shares its final U.S. production numbers from 2024, it’s also keeping an eye on the growing season underway in South America. In its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) researchers are forecasting the Brazilian corn crop to be 127 million tonnes, which is right in line with its previous estimates in December but 5 million more than a year ago. Soybeans in Brazil are forecast to be 169 million tonnes. Also steady compared to previous estimates. In Argentina, widespread drought and dryness are a concern for crops now in the heart of the season. However, USDA says it’s sticking with the current production forecast calling for a 51 million ton corn crop and a 52 million ton soybean crop.
“When you look at the Brazilian crop, they chose to leave it unchanged this time around,” said McCormick. “I think nine out of ten traders are looking for that crop to get bigger.”
