By Brian Grete, Pro Farmer
We always strive to go into Crop Tour with an open mind. The goal of the Tour is to get a strong, objective view of corn yield potential across the Corn Belt during the third full week of August.
While that’s the objective every year, it’s nearly impossible to block out the data we’ve gathered about the crop ahead of Tour. In fact, some of that data helps shape Pro Farmer’s official national crop estimate released after the Tour.
STRONG VERSUS POOR CORN
Heading into this year’s Tour, we know the corn crop is behind average in maturity after planting delays in some areas. From our 29 previous years of data collecting, we know our yield formula works best when the crop is more mature. This isn’t one of those years, but the data we gather will still provide a strong picture of the yield potential.
We also know there are some trouble spots — areas that were dry in June and remained that way through pollination. But, there are also many good areas. As of late July, USDA rated the U.S. corn crop as 61% “good” to “excellent.”
It’s debatable how much crop condition ratings equate to final yield, but this year’s crop was just a tad below average when pollination started. A key to this year’s Tour is if we find enough bushels in the good areas to offset the poorer areas.
SOYBEAN YIELD FACTORY
For soybeans, we don’t measure yield on Tour. Instead, we calculate pod counts in a 3' square. That gives us an idea of the “yield factory.” The reason: The number of pods it takes to make a bushel is different from state to state and varies from year to year. What we have learned over the years is the ideal pod count in a 3' square is 1,150.
If the average of all our samples and/or the average of all the state averages is close to that figure it’s going to be a big crop, especially if rains fall during or after Tour to give the crop the moisture fill pods.
3 DECADES OF YIELD SAMPLES
2022 is the 30th year of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Because USDA no longer collects objective yield samples in August, this will be the industry’s first broad look at field data from across the Corn Belt. The objective of Crop Tour is to find a representative sample of yield potential across the seven Corn Belt states from the roughly 1,500 corn and soybean samples.
Join one of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour events! In 2022, Pro Farmer Crop Tour gives you the opportunity to select your tour stop or watch online from wherever you are. Register and attend nightly meetings in person or watch the nightly broadcast live each night where you’ll receive daily results, scouting observations and historical comparison data from our tour leaders.
