The wrath of wildfires is something Canada knows all too well. After a historic season, 2024 is off to an active start with some fire forecasters saying this year’s wildfire threat could rival 2023.
“2023 in Canada was a historic wildfire season by many means. We absolutely shattered all records. Millions upon millions of acres of forests were burnt,” says Matt MacDonald, the lead fire weather forecaster for the B.C. Wildfire Service.
MacDonald says those blazes burned across the country–from coast to coast, top to bottom.
“All 13 provinces and territories has significant wildfire on the landscape. And particularly here in western Canada and British Columbia, 1.8 million acres were burned last season,” says MacDonald. “So, it was a tremendous ground-shattering year. And we’re hoping we don’t see that again this year.”
Dormant Threat Under The Snow
He’s hopeful 2024 doesn’t see a repeat, however this year’s wildfire season is already off to a fierce and early start much of that due to fires leftover from 2023.
“We’re already off to a busier start than we were last year, primarily due to these holdover fires. It’s one thing to have the drought to have the dry fuels. But at least last year, we were waiting for that ignition, whereas this year, the ignition is already there. Those fires actually never went away. They just kind of went dormant under the snow.
MacDonald says the wildfire season in 2023 lasted unusually long, not dying down until early November.
“And then finally, we put snow on the landscape and there’s nothing like snow to calm a fire. But what ends up happening is these fires continue to smolder, believe it or not below the snow,” says MacDonald. “So, while it may appear white on the landscape, these fires continue to burn at root bulbs into what we call the duff layer, which is the top foot or so of soil.
He says scientists were already detecting heat signals even before the snow melted.
“And sure enough, the snow melted, we put a little bit of wind on these holdover fires, and just earlier this week we had a cold front push through the northern part of the province. The explosive growth at which these fires came back to life was truly incredible,” says MacDonald.
What’s happened in just a week’s time is astonishing. Tens of thousands of acres are scorched from a fire in British Columbia. The province of Manitoba is fighting a massive blaze that had burned more than 86,000 thousand acres late last week.
While part of the problem is fires left over from 2023, the bigger issue is a multi-year drought continuing to fuel the blazes.
“The drought is very real. It’s very, very deep. And it’s very persistent,” MacDonald explains. “So, once we get fire on the landscape, it really digs in becomes difficult to control and to respond to. And then we just end up with these massive configurations, you know, fires that grow into 10s of 1000s, and even hundreds of 1000s of acres per fire.”
MacDonald says in British Columbia, 122 wildfires are on the landscape today, 8% of which are out of control as forecasters brace for more blazes this year.
“June is really that critical month for us will really determine, you know, the severity of our fire season. But again, this this drought is just so deep and persistent that it’s hard to think you know, a few weeks, even a month worth of rain is going to wash away all our problems. I think we’re in for another act of fire season here in 2024,” he adds.
The wildfires are already causing air quality concerns in the Plains and Midwest. The fires triggered air quality alerts across the U.S. starting last week.
The Smoke Effect on Crop Yields
The wildfire smoke was a constant issue most of the summer last year; however, there was a bright spot.
“Between corn and soybeans, corn is a little more susceptible to reductions in light. The wildfire smoke came through in June when we were experiencing drought-like conditions, and a lot of crops were experiencing stress at that point,” explains Dan Quinn, Purdue University extension corn specialist. “Those reductions in light reduced leaf surface temperatures and transpiration off those plants, which alleviated some of that stress.”
A Purdue report showed despite the temporary benefit in light reduction for crops, wildfire smoke still caused other harmful effects on crops and the environment. Since wildfires emit various air pollutants to form ozone when reacting with sunlight, Quinn said the ozone can cause harm to both corn and soybeans by entering the plant through the stomata, which burns plant tissue during respiration.
Summer Precipitation and Temperature Outlook
Is the U.S. in for another dry and hot summer in 2024? The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) just released its summer forecast, which is taking into account the transition from El Niño to La Niña. The CPC thinks El Niño will transition to the neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) next month. The summer outlook shows areas of the Plains and Western U.S. could see drought and dry conditions this summer, while much of the U.S. is expected to be warmer than normal.
