Andrew Jackson
Risk Manager, Future & Options Broker, Producers’ Hedge
I chose to become a scout because sometimes you have to break out of the gossip circle and do a little fact finding of your own. I love hearing the perspectives of others in the industry, but there’s nothing quite like seeing it for yourself. In addition to that, I always meet interesting people along the way. I’ve made important connections with other traders and analysts and had the opportunity to learn from farmers, agronomists and data scientists. I always walk away learning something in addition to the fundamental and agronomic observations you’d expect.
Those observations this year have my mind racing in regard to the cash market and the push/pull of basis that we’ll see in the new marketing year. When I departed Rochester, my gut was that given the big crop in the East, farmers in Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio should not expect the same inflated basis environment we’ve seen over the past few years. Now, however, considering the recent damage to Gulf export houses via Hurricane Ida, I even more strongly believe those farmers will need to temper those expectations.
There is almost always an opportunity somewhere in the market. However, this year those opportunities might come in setting basis levels early and even allow us to roll existing hedges into levels of carry that we haven’t seen in a bit. Let us also not forget that current values are still way above what any of us expected a year ago.
Karen Braun
Global Agriculture Columnist, Reuters
This year marked my eighth trip on the western leg of Crop Tour, and I guess at this point you could say I have a fear of missing out! There is no better way to evaluate crop potential than going out into the field, and the Tour offers the opportunity to cover the same ground each year.
Having done this so much, I can get a good feel for how the corn and soybeans looked versus my prior times on Tour. I am lucky to have done the same route in western Iowa for five of the past six years, and that has given me the chance to examine those year-on-year comparisons. I have photos of my past data sheets grouped on my phone, helping me to quickly measure my results versus previous years while we are on the road.
I also keep a spreadsheet with me on the average Tour corn yields and pod counts by state for the past decade or so, making it easy to see how the nightly results compare. That data is great for assessing where those states’ yields might be headed from USDA’s August estimate. Because I am such a visual person, I organize the data into concise tables and post them each night on Twitter, hoping to generate some insightful conversation.
I’d be remiss not to mention the Tour scouts, who I enjoy seeing every year. I’ve met some truly great people and formed some close friendships over the years. See you in 2022!
