From eye-popping numbers a few years ago, fertilizer prices are now below their recent record highs. However, some products have started to push up in price and that trend may continue through fall because of lower production from some key global exporters.
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer with StoneX, says potash prices are stable, but some phosphate products like MAP, Mono-Ammonium Phosphate, is up as much as $70 per ton and now sells for a premium to DAP or Diammonium Phosphate.
“The price of MAP 11-52-0, which is what a lot of farmers across the Midwest use, has skyrocketed and is up probably $50 to $70 a ton,” says Linville. “MAP is typically a $20 premium over DAP and today its closer to $100 and that’s because we’ve cut off a lot of world importers.”
He says Chinese exports are down, Brazilian production remains offline and European fertilizer production is down 25% due to high natural gas prices. That’s also pushing some nitrogen products to higher prices.
“You know we’ve seen anhydrous go up, UAN has been holding relatively steady, as has UREA but there are enough supply problems we’re worried we could see prices up $25 to $50 a ton if the right scenarios play out,” says Linville.
He’s referring to an escalation of Middle East tensions. Linville thinks phosphate prices could be even higher in the spring, depending on demand, as farmers are already cutting back for fall.
“When you look at the DAP and MAP prices compared to where corn, these are some of the worst values we’ve seen as a ratio between the products going back to 2018,” Linville said.
Farmers have to decide if they should buy fertilizer now amid some of the tightest crop margins ever, wait until spring to make purchases or cut the input all together.
Agronomists confirm many growers have already decided to cut their fertilizer programs for 2025. However, instead of slashing across the board, crop advisors suggest taking a strategic approach in order to preserve yield.
“You know what fields can have that fertility pulled back without a negative impact on overall yields and which fields we probably need to leave the fertility in place,” explains Isaac Ferrie with Crop Tech Consulting. “You may see that instead of cutting back $15 across the board, it may be more economical to cut $30 on one field and nothing on another because you won’t give up as much overall fertility.”
Ferrie says knowing your margins and projected margins are the key to making purchasing decisions for 2025.
“Where does the price have to be or what does it have to get down to is useful information to take to an agronomist,” adds Ferrie. “Telling them I need $15 or $20 dollars out of my fertilizer bill to make my budgets work is usually something they can use as a guide.”
